Late evening out for me on Tuesday, so an ultra-quick blog this time. The Tuesday result was encouraging with a 2-0 sweep on Bowling Green and St. Peter's. I've got two plays set as of now for Wednesday, and I'll go ahead and use one of those for the free play.
801 ILLINOIS STATE at 802 BRADLEY
TAKE: ILLINOIS STATE PK
I've completed my projections for the Super Bowl. My line is Rams -1.5. If this happened to be a regular season game, I can pretty well guarantee I'd be taking what I perceive as value with the Rams.
But there's the rub. This is not a regular season game. I've always believed the NFL playoffs, and most especially the Super Bowl, are not about garnering value but simply handicapping the matchup correctly.
That is certainly the case for me on this year's duel between the Rams and Patriots. I'm really not going to pay any attention whatsoever to my projected line. My goal here will be to match the teams up position by position, and then try to determine what the approach will be for each side.
I can't say this methodology works every time, because it sure doesn't. I've looked like a savant on some Super Bowl predictions and more like a blithering idiot on others.
Lots of work still to do on my end before arriving at a final decision, but once I do, I'll post it here.
Three quick observations from Sunday's NFL Conference Championship games.
I completely understand that making one play in any game the sole reason one team won and the other lost is an overstatement. Nevertheless, there was one play in each game that turned out to be bigger than any other in terms of dictating the winner, and they're each really clear cut.
The Saints are winners if not for an egregiously miserable non-call. As obvious as it gets on a Rams pass interference late in the game. If it's called, the Saints kneel and take the field goal with virtually no time remaining. There is zero excuse for this call not being made. Highway robbery and under the circumstances, one of the worst officiating gaffes in NFL history.
A called penalty cost the Chiefs the game against the Patriots, only this time the call was 100% correct. One of the Kansas City defenders inexcusably lined up in the neutral zone, and the call simply had to be made. That wiped out what would have been ...
It's just like old times here in Las Vegas, only with a different slant. Back in the glory days of UNLV basketball, there were very few nights when any event could upstage the Rebels. The only exceptions were true megafights, and I'm only talking about a select few elite level boxing matches. But generally speaking, when the Runnin' Rebels were playing, everything else was Page Two material.
The Rebels are no longer the main attraction, but we've returned to those bygone days with the new top of the marquee entry. That would be the Vegas Golden Knights.
A terrific illustration of what I mean took place on Saturday. The Golden Knights were hosting the Penguins at T-Mobile while long time boxing superstar Manny Pacquiao was the headliner just down the street as he faced Adrian Broner.
No contest on the popularity chart locally. The fight generated limited local interest from what I gathered. But the hockey game was big buzz material for Las Vegans.
And by the way, to what ...
The usual abbreviated late Friday blog, as the dissection of the seemingly endless Saturday CBB schedule continues. This session will be even lengthier than usual for me as I'm shifting gears for the time being to almost solely analysis, mainly because my numbers suck beyond belief right now.
Friday results were a loss on what is now an even more depleted St. Joe's team. They're going to be so shorthanded they're literally going to have to field a "team" of walk-ons and assistant coaches to act as the practice scout team for their next few opponents. My NHL plays split on Friday night, and while I did give back a little of the winnings last week (this week has been better), I remain mostly pleased with the on the ice action.
Here's one of what is presently a five-game Saturday college basketball card. It's definitely hold your nose material as the play is on a weak underdog, but this type of spot has been winning at a very nice clip.
805 TENNESSEE TECH at 806 JACKSONVILLE ...
Slumps are inevitable, they happen to everyone. The idea is to negotiate through them until things straighten out. That's why I'm probably less upset about a really bad loss late Thursday on Arizona State that I might ordinarily be. When the breaks are not going your way, that's the type of loss one can expect to incur.
The process is still solid and I fully expect that this last week is just a blip that will turn around quickly. With that in mind, there's one game on the Friday college docket I like and here it is.
853 ST. JOSEPH'S at 854 SAINT LOUIS
Take: ST. JOSEPH'S +8
Very rough for St. Joe's recently with some ugly losses. But the Hawks got a huge mental boost from defeating Davidson and I believe it carries over to this game. In spite of losing a couple of key components from what was projected to be a conference contender, this is still a team with some talent and they're well coached. The issue has been pretty simple. The Hawks just haven't been able to put the ...
A handful of words on following sharp money. This is a betting strategy wholly endorsed by some. The idea is to back the team the sharps are betting while the squares are on the other side. In other words, the recommendation is to follow the pros and fade the joes.
It sounds like a winning strategy, right? Back the side the professional bettors are on, especially when the masses are going the other way.
Here's the problem. It's not that easy to isolate which games actually fit this criteria. You might see ticket percentages listed but unless you know how many and which books these numbers are being used for the compilation, you're having to assume what's sharp. Good luck with that.
The other issue with this strategy is that by following it, you're basically guaranteeing yourself that you will never be getting the optimum number. That's because the sharps already beat it up, and you're therefore settling for a number that has also sacrificed value. That is a really bad idea, ...
Sorry to make this a very quick blog once again. But I'm crushed for time with a 6AM guest spot on CSIN pending and a very lengthy day of podcast and videos to be taped as well as my show. So Just a mini-recap and the daily free play this time.
Profitable Tuesday thanks to the New York Rangers on the ice. The hoops went either 1-1-1 or 1-2 depending on the line received on one of the games. I pushed it myself, so a net gain on the day of +1.15.
Wednesday free play is an added opinion for now. Fits on my numbers, which indicate a bit of value on the hime dog.
UNLV at AIR FORCE
Take: AIR FORCE +4.5
Hopefully back to the standard blog tomorrow!
Quick blog tonight, as i don't feel like writing anything. Hey, mighty as well be honest about it rather than concoct some lame excuse.
Monday was a split for me. 2-0 on the hoops, 0-2 on the ice and I ended up drinking some juice. The free play on Baylor won, but I ultimately decided to leave it as a lean and not a play.
The Tuesday comp is a play for me. although the number on the game has already moved.
BALL STATE at BOWLING GREEN
Take: BALL STATE -1
Note I played this and sent it to my subscribers at +1, and the number moved shortly after that. But it's still playable at -1.
The Cardinals were on a roll heading into a game as big chalk against Eastern Michigan. But they did not play well in that game and took a tough double OT loss. The roof then caved in on Ball State in a really pathetic effort at home against a mediocre Ohio entry. The Cardinals went 1/12 on threes, and even worse, had an insanely awful 5/19 assist to turnover ratio. We should get a much ...
Rams, Saints, Patriots, Chiefs. The NFL Conference Championship matchups are set and there are no surprises. The two top seeds in each conference have advanced and we're set up for what could be a spectacularly exciting Sunday to decide this year's Super Bowl participants.
I have not yet updated my NFL numbers so don't have an idea right now of what I'll be doing, That includes a decision as to whether or not to hedge my Rams Super Bowl future. My initial lean is to simply let it ride as live betting might provide a better opportunity to insure a profit. But I'll weigh my options over the next few days before arriving at the best move.
As for my results on the weekend that was, my only play was on the Saints -8, and that blew up when their kicker missed a late field goal that would have gotten New Orleans past the number. Nothing new there. I've always looked upon kickers as adversaries and that viewpoint keeps getting validated.
Sunday was my birthday, and let's just say ...
The NFL Playoff chalk finally awakened on Saturday, with the Chiefs and Rams each getting wins and covers. That was much to the dismay of bettors who were riding the tide with the underdogs.
The Chiefs win was pretty much a snap. They were simply better at every aspect of the game than the Colts on this day. One can easily argue the score was actually misleading as KC probably could have won this by 30. A no doubt about it outcome.
There was considerably more excitement in the Rams win over the Cowboys. Major props to LA for a really solid game plan they they executed quite well. But this game swung on a few plays, with perhaps the biggest being a fourth down stop by the Rams defense as they somehow managed to prevent Zeke Elliot from gaining just one needed yard.
I wasn't involved in either game, though I did lean to the two favorites. However, I was very pleased with the Rams advancing as they're my one Super Bowl future ticket purchased this season and it's nice to be ...
I'm deep into the dissection of the enormous Saturday college basketball card. But I'll take a brief break to a quick blog together. Three plays thus far for me after a Friday with no action at all. I'll post one of those plays here as the daily comp.
A reminder to take advantage of my guaranteed special that's currently running. If you click on Cokin's Picks from the menu on this page, there are details on how it works, or you can simply email me at firstname.lastname@example.org. Meanwhile, here's the comp for Saturday.
791 FURMAN at 792 UNC GREENSBORO
TAKE: GREENSBORO -1.5
I will play on a good home team, at least at their level, off a disastrous home loss. Greensboro could probably use a little more recovery time off the humiliating loss to Wofford, but I'll hope they have put that behind them. The fact they have a very veteran coach and an experienced team lessens my worry that there's a carryover effect. Furman has made some noise this season with the wins against Villanova and ...