Dave’s Free Play, Wednesday 6/19/13

0/5,  with 3 GIDP’s and a pair of K’s. That’s known as bottoming out, and in what has been an absolutely horrendous start to the season for Josh Hamilton, he hit rock bottom last night. The Angels are among the biggest flops in baseball this year, and while it’s unfair to pin the problems on one guy by himself, there’s also no question that Hamilton is just killing this team right now.

There just isn’t anything to like about Hamilton’s game. Quite frankly, while appearances can be deceiving, he almost looks disinterested these days. His approach at the plate is absurdly bad, and it’s not like Hamilton is a game changer in the field. Angels skipper Mike Scioscia has tried all kinds of moves to ignite his team and Hamilton as well, but nothing is working.

One things that is crystal clear at this point is that Scioscia has to get Hamilton out of the two-hole. He’s a massive liability getting that many plate appearances. Personally, I think Hamilton needs to sit out a few games, but I understand that’s tough to do when the guy is being paid monster dollars. At the very least, however, Hamilton needs to be moved well down in the batting order. I would not consider having him hit higher than sixth, and ideally the seven slot might be the best fit right now.

Again, Hamilton is not the only problem in Anaheim. But with the season getting away from the Halos, Scioscia has to start configuring the lineup to get his productive players the most plate appearances. That means an end to the waiting for Hamilton to get rolling, as at this point, it simply might not happen. With both Howie Kendrick and Peter Bourjos producing very nicely, it’s time to get that duo more AB’s. That won’t necessarily jump start the Angels back into a respectable position. But it has to be an improvement over what’s taking place right now.

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I dropped two of my three baseball plays on Tuesday night. The free play also bit the dust as the normally solid Royals bullpen had a very bad night at Cleveland. Bounce back time tonight. Get the entire Wednesday card or try one week by clicking the “buy now” tab. Or get all the pertinent info on my monthly or seasonal rates by shooting me an email at cokin@cox.net.

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959 Pittsburgh Pirates @ 960 Cincinnati Reds 4:10PM Pacific

Take: Pirates

Jeff Locke has enjoyed tremendous success for the Pirates so far this season. To put it bluntly, he had been getting ridiculously fortunate until recently. The Locke metrics just weren’t very good and I was quite sure we’d be seeing a regression in place by now.

Instead, Locke has suddenly gotten everything together and over his last three starts, he’s been absolutely outstanding for Pittsburgh. The K rate has jumped, and the good luck that he was experiencing has been replaced by a recent run of rock solid efforts that are not misleading in any fashion.

Most pitchers pitching well below or above what their peripherals indicate will usually see a major correction that allows bettors to cash in either playing on or against. But every now and then, we’ll see a guy who just defies the numbers and actually goes from fortunate to just plain terrific. That’s Locke in a nutshell right now.

The Reds will counter with Bronson Arroyo, who has turned into what amounts to an automatic quality start. Arroyo is smoke and mirrors, as he can’t blow anyone away and I keep waiting for him to blow up and have a really bad game. But that’s not happening, and my guess is he’ll have another decent outing tonight.

Nevertheless, I’m on the Locke express this time. I think we’re likely to see a decent duel tonight given the form of the pitchers. But with Locke on fire and also backed by a lights out bullpen, I see backing the Pirates as the right way to play tonight.

Dave’s Free Play, Tuesday 6/18/13

Some really tough beats for loads of bettors on Monday night.  Dog players looked like they were on their way to a sweet payoff with the Mets, the Patrick Corbin Diamondbacks money train was en route to another win, the Astros had the jump on the White Sox as they went for the sweep, the Giants looked to be in excellent shape leading by a pair against the shorthanded Padres. At the end of the night, all four of those entries were in the loss column.

The only one to get me in that quartet was the Giants. They appeared to have the game won in the bottom of the 12th, but one of the best catches you’ll ever see by Will Venable preserved the tie, and the Padres subsequently pushed a pair across in the 13th for the win. I really can’t bitch and moan about this one, though, as the Padres were clearly the right side. They should have won this in a breeze as they missed a boatload of scoring chances. As for the Giants, their only three runs came in a fluky fourth inning where they put a crooked number on the board on a bunch of rollers that just found holes in the infield. Truth it, the Giants offense is now in deep hibernation as the injuries to Sandoval, Pagan and Scutaro are starting to have a major impact.

The NL West is now logjam city. Four teams within 1.5 games, with only the inept Dodgers not inv0lved in the fun. It sure looks as though it’s going to be a late supper summer for me, as I’ll have trouble tearing myself away from the big screens till each night’s action is in the books. Believe me, I won’t mind and I’m looking at extra weekends at Petco and/or Chase whenever the schedule permits!

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-1-15 for me on Monday night, so I’ll have to get the rapid rebound again tonight. Click the “buy now” tab to purchase one day or one week. If you want info on monthly or seasonal rates, drop me a line at cokin@cox.net.  All information is kept strictly confidential. I don’t sell or trade names, emails, phones, etc.

The free plays are cookin’ right now with the Phillies getting the walk-off win on Monday night. Back to what has been a big winning well of late tonight.

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06/18 04:05 PM  MLB   (913) KANSAS CITY ROYALS (914) CLEVELAND INDIANS

Take: (913) KANSAS CITY ROYALS

Reason: No team is hotter than the Royals are right now. The offense remains pretty spotty, but Kansas City is getting terrific pitching, both from the starters and the relief corps. Keep the other guys off the board, mix in a few timely hits and just like that, there’s a surge taking place. That’s the Royals right now.

Some bettors might be hesitant to back Ervin Santana here, as the Royals righty has an ugly career ledger against the Indians, particularly at this ballpark. But Santana threw a gem against this team earlier this season, and Santana comes into this game in a groove. Over his last three starts, Santana has surrendered very little offense. 21.2 IP, 13 hits, only two earned runs, and a 2/14 BB/K. The May losing streak Santana suffered through is now a memory and he’s in go with form.

You never really know what you’ll get with Ubaldo Jimenez. He had an outstanding start earlier this year against the Royals, and is certainly capable of duplicating the effort here. But one somewhat concerning recent development for Jimenez is that he’s issuing walks at a high rate once again. If that continues here, the pitch count will explode and he’ll again be gone by the middle innings.

The Royals have a clear edge if this is close at the finish line. That Kansas City bullpen is pitching some outstanding baseball, and there’s nothing I can see that says it won’t continue. So the hope here is for Santana to just match Jimenez if the good Ubaldo shows up tonight. If Santana can accomplish that feat, I like my chances of notching the win with the underdog Royals.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dave’s Free Play, Monday 6/17/13

Solid bounce back Sunday with a +1.55 net profit on five plays. That wrapped up a productive week, and I’m looking forward to maintaining that positive progress this week as well. Get my daily or weekly package by utilizing the “buy now” tab on this page. Or, get more detailed info on monthly and/or seasonal rates by emailing me at cokin@cox.net.

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I don’t want to keep beating a dead horse, but Don Mattingly continues to make that an unavoidable habit. The Dodgers lame duck skipper…and make no mistake, if he’s not exactly that, he ought to be…was at it again on Sunday in a loss to the Pirates.

Bases loaded, top of the sixth, and the lighter than a feather hitting Luis Cruz is due up in a critical situation. It’s the absolute right spot to pinch hit Hanley Ramirez. But Mattingly opted to let Cruz hit for himself, and a called third strike later, the inning was over and for all intents and purposes, so was the game.

This was the spot to take the best possible shot at the Bucs. It’s pretty much game, set and match once the Melancon/Grilli combo gets involved, so the idea is to get your best available bat to the plate in what is likely the best opportunity your team will have in its remaining at bats.

My reaction at the moment was that Ramirez simply must not be available due to his injury status. So I didn’t flip out at the time. But that was clearly NOT the case. I know that beyond any doubt as Ramirez grabbed his bat and pinch hit in the ninth inning, and in fact made the last out when he was K’d by Grilli.

There’s no way of knowing what Hanley would have done hitting when he should have, in the potential sixth inning rally. Maybe he makes an out and nothing changes. But to sit him there and then basically waste him later is just plain dumb.

Sorry to be repetitive on this topic, but I’m absolutely convinced Mattingly is one of the worst in-game managers I’ve ever seen.  The Dodgers are a flawed team and the injuries are playing a role in their monster flop of a campaign. But that doesn’t excuse the constant blundering in terms of managerial maneuvers. Mattingly needs to go. Now.

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06/17 04:05 PM  MLB   (951) WASHINGTON NATIONALS VS (952) PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

Take: (952) PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

Reason: Emotion and motivation are key variables in handicapping football, and in basketball as well to some extent. In baseball those intangibles carry far less weight. It’s really just a matter of numbers. One out of handful of games is going to be more significant that one out of 162. But there is the occasional spot where these aspects come into play in baseball, and I think there’s one such spot tonight.

John Lannan will be on the mound for the Phillies as they return home to open a series with the Nationals. This will be Lannan’s first start against his former team, and in his case, I’m attaching a little extra importance to this fact than might normally be the case.

Lannan raised a bit of a stink in the spring of 2012 when he found out he was being optioned to AAA. This was following a 2011 campaign that had seen him lead the Nats is starts, wins and innings. The veteran lefty asked to be traded, and Nationals GM responded by stating that interest in Lannan was “mild”, and the southpaw ended up spending most of the season in the minors. He was eventually recalled and went 4-1 for the Nats, but spent the post-season in a strictly observational post. Not surprisingly, Lannan was non-tendered in the off-season, and now he’s with the Phillies.

Lannan is strictly a back of the rotation guy, but if there’s a team he really wants to beat, it has to be the Nationals. He’s drawing the right opponent as Dan Haren is getting lit up on a regular basis, and Haren’s home run vulnerability has a real chance of being a key tonight.

I’m not altogether sold on Lannan in spite of the circumstances. It’s his first start back in the bigs off the DL and he will need to avoid getting hammered by Jayson Werth, who has crushed him in the past. But I like the situation quite a bit, and I sure don’t have a problem trying to beat the fast fading Haren. I’ll make the Phillies tonight’s comp opinion.

 

 

 

 

Dave’s Free Play, Sunday 6/16/13

Some good things came to an end on Saturday, as I ended up in the red for the first time this week. The free play run also concluded as the Royals finally lost one, but I’m pretty pleased with the way that strategy worked out.

Today’s commentary is a part of the free play analysis, which is mostly centered on a team that is on its way to falling well short of most of the pre-season predictions. As for my card, I’m playing the NBA game and you’ll get that plus my Sunday baseball by clicking the “buy now” tab. Daily and weekly packages available there, or contact me directly at cokin@cox.net for info on monthly and seasonal offers.

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06/16 11:10 AM  MLB   (921) CHICAGO WHITE SOX VS (922) HOUSTON ASTROS

Take: (922) HOUSTON ASTROS

It’s not exactly news that the Astros are bringing up the rear in the AL West. Picking Houston to finish in last place this season wasn’t rocket science. They’re mostly too young and generally just not talented enough to be anything other than a cellar dweller.

What’s more newsworthy is the steep decline of the White Sox. This team was a playoff contender until a September collapse last season. But the 2013 Chisox have little in common with the previous edition. They’re not just a team that’s struggling. Fact is, this team pretty much stinks right now and I don’t really see things getting significantly better.

Age, injuries to their pitchers, a barren farm system and what sure looks like a dead attitude add up to bad results. That’s the White Sox right now. That last aspect, the team’s apparent personality, is the most troubling. This squad has played what can only be described as mentally sloppy baseball all season. As they fall deeper into the AL Central depths, it’s probably going to keep getting worse.

Personally, I think the White Sox need to be putting a fire sale in place. They won’t get much for the old farts on the roster, who make big bucks and aren’t even mildly desired commodities. But at this point, some of these guys would be addition by subtraction.

The Astros are actually in better shape than the White Sox. They don’t have great skills, but I really like the energy on this team and they at least have displayed the will to win. That has shown in this series, with Houston playing the much crisper baseball and as a result, they’re up 2-0 in this wraparound set that concludes on Monday.

I rate the Hector Santiago-Dallas Keuchel pitching matchup roughly even. Santiago has the better ERA, but Keuchel owns a slim edge in most of the metric comparisons. The offensive edge goes to the hosts. They’re not that bad against lefties, whereas the White Sox haven’t hit southpaws worth a lick.

The White Sox are marginally superior to Houston overall, but they’re not today. I see some legitimate value in backing the Astros as a home dog in this hookup.

Dave’s Free Play, Saturday 6/15/13

What is turning into a pretty nice roll continued on Friday night, in spite of losing the one game that found its way into extra innings (from the some things never change department). But as long as the plus money nights keep coming, there will be no complaints from this vantage point.

The free plays are also getting hot with four straight winners and the game plan I decided on for this weekend on those is working out perfectly.

Today’s card is available for purchase, as is one full week of plays. Just click the “buy now” tab to get that process started. For longer term info, get in touch with me directly at cokin@cox.net.

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Rick Porcello is sending the baseball world a strong message right now. Namely, don’t bail on a guy too soon. Porcello is shredding that bust label that accompanied almost any mention of his name. The Tigers righty dazzled again on Friday night against the Twins and he’s now one of the hotter pitchers you’ll find anywhere.

The difference appears to be the virtual scrapping of a hard slider that just wasn’t very good, in favor of a slower curve that’s proving to be very effective. The result is that Porcello is inducing his usual plus rate of ground balls, but now he’s also getting more swinging strikes and K’s.

I’m not putting Porcello on any All-Star teams just yet. But if this is more than a short term surge, the Tigers are going to be rolling out one nasty rotation come playoff time. The bullpen is an ongoing issue, but that’s still fixable as well. Regardless, a five-man roll of Verlander, Scherzer, Sanchez and the new and improved Porcello looks like big trouble for any and all opponents.

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06/15 01:10 PM  MLB   (969) KANSAS CITY ROYALS VS (970) TAMPA BAY RAYS

Take: (969) KANSAS CITY ROYALS

Strategy of backing Royals till they lose is working like a charm and paying off like an ATM gone haywire. Toughest challenge today as they face Alex Cobb who will no doubt be motivated upon his return from bereavement leave.  No other analysis necessary, and to be honest, it’s tough to justify Guthrie beating Cobb by itself. But with KC again catching a generous price, I’ll stay with the program and will back the Royals again.

 

Dave’s Free Play, Friday 6/14/13

Thursday was perfect, and the surge I felt was coming is now definitely in place. You probably already know the drill, but here it is regardless. Daily and/or weekly plays available by clicking the “buy now” tab on this page. More detailed info on monthly or season packages, email me directly at cokin@cox.net.

#umpshow superstar CB Bucknor had quite a day in Oakland yesterday. He did make a very good call at home plate fairly early in the game, as he properly spotted the catcher tagging the runner with the glove while holding the baseball in his throwing hand. But Bucknor had what I’m told was a bad, even by his standards, day on balls and strikes ( I did not see the game, so am relying on reports from those who did).  Bucknor did have one comical gaffe along the way. He rung up a hitter with a strike three call, which would have been fine, except for the fact he did so on strike two.  There is no question in my mind that once expanded replay is put into place, Bucknor’s job will be in jeopardy.

The Colorado Rockies have suddenly been ravaged by an epidemic of injuries. Troy Tulowitzki has a broken rib and is now gone for at least one month. Dexter Fowler is now day to day after getting hit on the hand by a pitch. Carlos Gonzalez  also got dinged up yesterday on a bizarre play. He got hit in the foot area by a foul ball while waiting on deck, and had to leave the game. Plus, the Rockies basically lost the game yesterday in very weird fashion, as reliever Wilton Lopez was called for back to back balks. Add it all up, and it’s safe to say that Thursday was about as bad as it can get for this team, and it’s going to be interesting to see how they handle the adversity in this weekend’s set with the Phillies.

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06/14 04:10 PM  MLB   (917) KANSAS CITY ROYALS VS (918) TAMPA BAY RAYS

Take: (917) KANSAS CITY ROYALS

If you read my Thursday free play writeup, you already knew what was coming with the Friday comp selection. My strategy was to back the red hot Royals at nice road dog odds, and the idea is to stay on them until they cough one back. The easy win last night means I’m staying on KC again tonight, and this time it’s at a very big price, in spite of Rays starter Matt Moore being in a big time funk of late. The Royals at serious plus money are the choice.

 

 

 

 

Dave’s Free Play, Thursday 6/13/13

I’ve been doing this long enough to have grasped a pretty good feel for when it’s going to be a grind, but also when things are going to heat up. The grind has been in place for most of the first two months of this baseball season. Common theme, blown late leads and a load of frustrating finishes. But while there was that nasty loss with the White Sox on Tuesday, there have also been a couple of last at bat winners this week. Coming back to get the sweet dog payoff last night on the Astros was a big smile. It’s also that buy sign that indicates there’s a pretty solid chance of a major run coming.

In other words, this is probably not a bad time to be playing my sides. If you’d like info on rates and all the other pertinent data, simply shoot me an email at cokin@cox.net.

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I offered the opinion on yesterday’s The Las Vegas Sportsline (2-3 PM Pacific on ESPN1100/ 98.9 FM in Las Vegas, or online at espn1100.com) that I believe the Blackhawks will win the Stanley Cup. I didn’t recommend betting the series as I just didn’t see value either way. The number was high enough to keep me off Chicago but it also impressed me as being priced to encourage Bruins action, and I absolutely do not want to be on a public steam underdog.

So I’m strictly going to be wearing fan colors in this series, and being a native New Englander, I’m of course pulling hard for the Bruins. Gotta tell ya, losing as a bettor is never fun, but I actually think it’s worse for me when I’m just being a fan. That was an awesome Game One last night, but being on the wrong side of triple OT in the Stanley Cup Finals…well, that just sucked.  I also think the B’s are going to have a tough time getting this one back. But I’ll be in the big chair for Game Two and hoping for a different result.

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06/13 04:10 PM  MLB   (963) KANSAS CITY ROYALS VS (964) TAMPA BAY RAYS

Take: (963) KANSAS CITY ROYALS

One week ago, Ned Yost’s head was on the managerial chopping block. The Royals were mired in a terrible slump, and the vultures were circling in Kansas City.

One week later, the Royals are suddenly on fire. The Royals are now on a 7-1 rampage following Wednesday’s dramatic come from behind win against the Tigers. They’re back to within three games of the .500 plateau, KC trails second place Cleveland by only one game, and they’re actually within 5.5 of the AL Central-leading Tigers.

It’s not as though the Royals are bombing baseballs all over the park, but they are winning again and Yost now looks safe for at least the time being. I also think it’s fair to say the thrilling win yesterday was the best victory of the campaign to date for the Royals. The challenge now is to keep that momentum intact as they journey to Tampa Bay for a weekend set with the Rays.

Ervin Santana takes the hill for Kansas City tonight. His history against the Rays, particularly in this ballpark, is pretty discouraging. Santana has had loads of trouble with several of the hitters he’ll be facing tonight, and he’s prone to the long ball against these guys as well.

Jeremy Hellickson will throw for the Rays tonight. Hellickson has been mostly ordinary for TB this season. His metric line isn’t horrible, but Hellickson has managed only four quality starts overall. The good news for the righty is that his control has been superb. Hellickson has walked only four batters in his last six starts covering 38.2 innings. So hitters have to beat him as he won’t beat himself.

I would call the pitching matchup basically even. Santana has the better numbers, but that history against the lineup he most likely sees tonight is troubling. Plus, the Rays are 5-1 at home when Hellickson starts.

Nevertheless, I can make a case for riding the hot horse here. The idea is to get as many wins out of the Royals as you can until the inevitable reversal takes place. They’re going to be underdogs all weekend, and if they can stay warm, there’s a chance to pick up some serious profits. Once they lose, just jump off the train and find something else. But with the price where it is tonight, I prefer the Royals to keep it rolling for at least one more night.

 

 

 

 

Dave’s Free Play, Wednesday 6/12/13

2-1 on my Tuesday personal plays and a tidy profit for the day. This despite being outscored 8-0 from the eighth inning on in those three games. The worst of the trio was obviously the one that lost, which was the White Sox.

The Pale Hose were one strike away from a 5-4 win over the Blue Jays, but Jose Bautista spoiled the party by launching a bomb over the left field wall that tied things up. Toronto then added a pair in the tenth frame and that was that.

The White Sox are a horror show, by the way. This is as fundamentally unsound a team as you’ll see at the major league level. Miami and Houston are the two worst teams in the majors, but I’ll argue the White Sox as the sloppiest squad in either league. This team is already over 40 errors on the season, and their baserunning is an embarrassment.  I really think there’s a problem with focus on this squad. If that’s the case, we’re looking at a team that’s doomed to a dismal final standing. On paper, even with the pitching injuries, the White Sox ought to be good enough to at least be a respectable losing team. But my sense watching this outfit is that they’re heading for a last place finish in the AL Central, and at this point I have to wonder if they’ll even win 70 games.

Who gets the blame? I’m not sold on Robin Ventura as a game manager, but the real culprit here is Kenny Williams. Between some questionable trades and a bevy of bad draft picks, the White Sox are now an organization loaded with faded or at least underachieving name players. Team that up with what amounts to a barren farm system, and this franchise has the look of one that might be bad for some time.

I see the White Sox as a franchise that is going to have to undertake a major overhaul. That means a fire sale with their veterans, and latching onto some legit prospects is an absolute must moving forward. In other words, they’re going to have to follow the lead of their neighbors from Wrigley Field, who are finally going about rebuilding in the right way. Whether or not they are willing to follow that blueprint will determine how bright or dim the future is for the Chisox.

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Pretty good week in place so far, and high hopes of keeping it going today. Buy the daily or weekly package by clicking the “buy now” tab on this page. Monthly or season inquiries, email me directly at cokin@cox.net. Note your info will never be sold or traded, all that remains strictly confidential.

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06/12 04:10 PM  MLB   (919) BOSTON RED SOX VS (920) TAMPA BAY RAYS

Take: (919) BOSTON RED SOX

The Red Sox and Rays conclude their three-game set at the Trop tonight. The first two games resulted in a split with the underdog emerging victorious in both contests.

Boston has recalled veteran Alfredo Aceves for tonight’s game. Allen Webster and Rubby De La Rosa also reportedly were considered, but the Red Sox decided to settle on Aceves. Considering how miserably the Rays he’ll be seeing have fared against him, Aceves definitely looks like the right choice.

Chris Archer will throw for the hosts. Archer is a highly regarded prospect with some major heat. But Archer also has a tendency to lose the strike zone, and that’s what is keeping him from nailing down a regular spot in the Tampa Bay rotation. From a pure stuff standpoint, Archer is absolutely good enough to be a solid big league starting pitcher. But until that control issue is harnessed, he’s going to be on the outside looking in.

The Red Sox are a bad matchup for Archer. Boston leads the majors in walks. That patience is likely to be a huge asset for them here, as they are not likely to chase whatever Archer is throwing. The Red Sox are a good bet to be in take mode in an effort to attain favorable counts, at which point Archer could well become very hittable.

As for Aceves, the lineup I’m projecting for Tampa Bay is a combined 5/47 against him, and for whatever reason this is the type of spot where Aceves seems to be at his best.

The grotesque Aceves ERA will turn most bettors off the Boston side here. But I’ve had success backing the eccentric righty in scenarios such as this one, and I like Aceves and the Red Sox to nab the win tonight.

 

 

 

Dave’s Free Play, Tuesday 6/11/13

Anyone who wagers on a regular basis can likely recite a lengthy list of bad beats, the games they should have won but somehow didn’t. Sometimes it’s tougher to recall the lucky wins. I would guess that’s because when it’s a tough loss, it seems unjustified and therefore remains fixed in one’s mind. On the other hand, even if it amounts to grand larceny, when a game wins the bettor will usually just check it off as a victory and will go back to dwelling on the one that got away.

I mention this because I got a lucky one last night, winning the Reds/Cubs Over right at the finish line. This looked easy early thanks to a Brandon Phillips grand slam. But the scoring then stopped, and if not for an error and what amounts to baseball’s version of the prevent defense, it would have been a loser.

I’m only mentioning this because it will be out of my memory bank within minutes, and I’ll be right back to bitching about the next bad beat that occurs in short order.

In fact, while not meaning to be morbid, I’m pretty sure that if I make it to 90 or so, I’ll likely not be able to remember my address or phone number. But you can bet your bottom dollar I’ll have no trouble recalling my worst betting beats.

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Several possible plays on Tuesday, although I actually haven’t played anything yet. But I’ll be in action for sure later today, and you can get all my personal plays by hitting that “buy now” tab on the right side of this page. The weekly package is there as well. Or, for monthly/seasonal subscription info, just drop me a line at cokin@cox.net.

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06/11 05:05 PM  MLB   (957) CINCINNATI REDS VS (958) CHICAGO CUBS

Take: (957) CINCINNATI REDS

Second verse, same as the first. The Reds grabbed the opener of their series with the Cubs in easy fashion, and they’re likely to do the same tonight.

Welcome to what has turned into one of the more lopsided series you’ll find anywhere. The Reds have now won 20 of their last 27 at Wrigley Field, and they’re a remarkable 41- 15 in the last 56 meetings with the Cubs.

The mound battle tonight features Tony Cingrani against Matt Garza. Cingrani has been recalled due to the injury to Johnny Cueto, and he’ll be looking to build on what was an impressive debut in a series of starts last month. Cingrani didn’t sulk upon heading back down to Louisville. The lefty had a few control issues in his first two starts back, but was in command last time out, issuing zero free passes. In 17 innings down on the farm, Cingrani gave up only four runs and registered 23 K’s. This southpaw has star potential and I expect him to contain the Cubs tonight.

There’s nothing wrong with Garza, and in fact he’s had success against the likely Reds starters, who’ve gone only 13/8 with a pair of Jay Bruce HR’s against him. Plus Garza is in decent form since coming off his DL stint, and the Cubs have won three of his last four starts.

The main thing here, however, is simply the team form and history. That’s all Cincy on both counts. This is like a home away from home for the Reds, and I have to think there’s an excellent chance that continues tonight.