Dave’s Free Play, Monday 10/20/14

Only two games on tap tonight, one in the NFL and one on the ice. I’m not going to be involved with either one, so it’s the ultimate rarity here…a day off.

The just completed week was ridiculously good. 23-6, +16.75 overall. Both the weekly and monthly packages include all my plays across the board, sent out via email as I play them myself. There’s a minimum five net unit guarantee with the monthly offer. I’ve also got a net winners program for those who prefer to pay exclusively omn performance. Contact me via email at cokin@cox.net for all the details.

That’s it. Back Tuesday with the usual routine, including a free play. Enjoy your Monday!

Dave’s Free Play, Sunday 10/19/14

Here’s the quick take rundown from selected Saturday college games:

Kansas State outlasted Oklahoma thanks to three unexpected gaffes by the Sooners kicker. A brutal loss for Oklahoma, as they won the stats by a pretty good margin and really should have won the game.

Maryland earned its first ever Big Ten home win as they rallied from an early 14-0 deficit to kayo Iowa. The big play was a William Likely pick six early in the fourth quarter that stretched the Terrapins lead to ten and they never looked back.

Minnesota is now 3-0 in league play as the Gophers won a thriller against improving Purdue. David Cobb had a big game on the ground for Minnesota and Ryan Santoso was the hero with his 52-yard FG serving as the game winner.

West Virginia dealt Baylor’s playoff hopes a critical blow with a 41-127 upset. Mountaineers QB Clit Trickett outplayed Bears signal caller Bryce Petty and was tremendous at crunch time in what is a very big win for the WVU program.

Big comeback by Florida Atlantic. The Owls were down to Western Kentucky 31-14 at halftime, but QB Jaquez Johnson had a great second half and hit a 61-yard TD pass with less than two minutes remaining for the win.

South Florida was trailing Tulsa 30-14 midway through the third quarter but Bulls QB Mike White got hot and the Golden Hurricane defense collapsed yet again.

Virginia won the stats against Duke, but the Blue Devils made the more important plays on both sides of the ball and eked out a 20-13 win over the Cavaliers.

Clemson played great defense and got just enough production from its banged up offense to get past Boston College. Tigers QB Cole Stoudt hung tough in spite of hurting his shoulder in a gritty win.

Central Michigan flattened out off a very big win at Northern Illinois and the Chippewas got knocked off by Ball State. Clear case of a team not used to winning much recently bouncing off a significant road victory.

California has been in one crazy game after another and the Bears were on the wrong side of the latest one as they dropped a 36-34 duel with UCLA. Brett Hundley had a monster game for the Bruins, who ended a  long streak of futility at Berkley.

Alabama was awesome in a complete demolition of Texas A&M. This was the slaughter of the say, with the stats every bit as dominating as the 59-0 tally might indicate. No one played better than the Tide on this Saturday.

San Jose State manaaged to overcome some ill-time blunders and survived regulation when Wyoming missed a fairly long FG at the finish. The Spartans then got it together on OT and got a nice road win at Laramie.

No Gurley, no problem for Georgia. Nick Chubb exploded for 204 yards on the ground as the bulldogs won 45-32. The final was misleading as this clash was never in any doubt.

There didn’t figure to be much defense between Georgia Tech and North Carolina, and the game lived up to billing. Last team with the ball wins type of shootout and the Tar Heels got the deciding TD with just 20 seconds remaining.

Florida bottomed out in a disastrous outing against Missouri. The Tigers had 42 points despite only 119 yards of total offense, a ratio I’m quite sure I’ve never seen. The Gators had six turnovers in what can only be described as a total humiliation.

Colorado State kicked two long FG’s inside the last two minutes to come from behind against Utah State. This was a huge win for the Rams, who had their first sellout since 2004 and the crowd rushed the field after Jared Roberts kicked the game winner.

Those expecting an Ole Miss letdown got surprised as the Rebels bombed Tennessee. The Volunteers were -4 in turnovers and that eliminated any chance they could compete here.

Nebraska at Northwestern was a tossup at the half, but the Cornhuskers romped down the stretch. Ameer Abdullah did his usual damage on the ground and Tommy Armstrong Jr. did a good job managing the game for Nebraska.

LSU put together its strongest game of there season as they crushed Kentucky. The Tigers probably could have won this even bigger than the 4-13 final, but this game could well be the buy signal for the Bayou Bengals.

Iowa State always competes hard and the Cyclones took Texas to the wire in a shootout. The Longhorns escaped with the 48-45 win on a late drive and short FG by Nick Rose.

BYU put up some big offensive numbers, but they killed themselves with turnovers and Nevada’s Cody Fajardo took full advantage. The Wolf Pack are now 3-3 off the 42-35 upset and are continuing to show some nice improvement from last year’s squad.

Arizona State was very impressive in a rather one-sided win over Stanford. Mike Bercovici had another good game under center for the Sun Devils and the Stanford offense malfunctioned moist of the night.

Finally, an absolute corker between Notre Dame and Florida State. The Seminoles were extremely fortunate to win when a late Notre Dame TD was wiped out on an offensive pass interference penalty. I thought the Irish deserved to win this game, but credit the ‘Noles for finding a way to preserve their perfect record.

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My big run continued with a 9-3 Saturday. 7-3 on the college gridiron and two more winners in the NHL. I’m sitting at 21-4 for the week and the calendar year bottom line is starting to look very attractive. I’ll be on three NFL games on Sunday plus one more play on the ice. There’s always the possibility of late adds based on breaking info, but I’d say it’s unlikely here.

The weekly and monthly packages can be purchased using the “buy now” tab on this page and note there’s a minimum five net units of profit guarantee with the monthly deal. My net winners program is obviously producing some pretty healthy profits for subscribers and details on how that works are available by emailing me at cokin@cox.net.

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Good results on the free plays yesterday with Boston College and the Tampa Bay Lightning both getting there. I’ve already posted a free NFL play, so today’s comp will be a lookahead to Game One of the World Series.

10/21 5:05 PM   MLB   (901) SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS  at  (902) KANSAS CITY ROYALS

Take: (901) SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS -107

Regardless of which side I’m on in this World Series opener, I’m going to be fading an entry that has massive positive momentum. That’s pretty much the case in every Fall Classic, and the way these two teams have been winning their games, it’s definitely a major factor here. But determining which team is hotter is pretty tough. The Royals are perfect, eight wins in eight tries. The Giants have a ridiculous October record when factoring in the championships in both 2010 and 2012.

So this is a tough choice, no doubt about it. Depending on what each bettor focuses on the most in making a decision, there’s no bad choice here, at least not before the game gate played. I decided to opt for the starting pitching as my ultimate choice, as there’s one big aspect of what these teams like to do that comes into play based on this matchup.

Madison Bumgarner is obviously a stud. But in breaking down what opponents have done against him, one set of numbers really stood out to me. Bumgarner has become extremely difficult to run on. For the season, opposing base stealers were able to swipe a base just seven times in 17 tries against MadBum. Perhaps even more importantly, he’s been getting even better in preventing SB’s as the campaign has progressed.

In Bumgarner’s last 29 starts, including the four in the current playoffs, the opposition has been successful on just two of ten steal attempts. That’s what I feel is a very big stat as far as this game is concerned, as swiping bases is a big part of what the Royals want to do in order to make their small ball philosophy work. If Bumgarner is able to take away that aspect of the Kansas City game, it’s going to certainly lessen the likelihood of much damage being done.

I give Bumgarner an edge over James Shields, and while the Royals bullpen is absolutely second to none, I’d still rather have the edge for six innings rather than three, and I feel I’ve got that with the Giants ace.

The home field advantage is definitely in play. But I don’t think it’s as significant here as it was in the two Royals series we just witnessed. In each instance, the Royals were already in great shape following road sweeps against the Angels and Orioles. The Giants won’t be bothered by the big dimensions at KC, and this is a veteran playoff team with a great track record of success in these games.

It’s clearly not a snap decision, and I certainly can respect any case that’s made for the Royals in Game One and/or in the Series. But I see the potential negating of the Royals speed game being of substantial importance and with that as my key, I’m backing the Giants to win Game One.

 

Dave’s Free Play, Saturday 10/18/14

Quick takes from the two Friday night college games:

Boise State won the stats by a comfortable margin in the Milk Can rivalry game with Fresno State. But the Bulldogs hung tough and this game was in doubt till the late stages. The Broncos ultimately toughened up defensively in the final quarter and got the win, but I liked the way Fresno State hung in.

Rough night for Temple as the Owls got drilled at Houston. The Owls had problems throughout with turnovers, and they had no answer at all for Cougars QB Greg Ward, Jr. It certainly appears as though Houston is a much better team with the QB change taking place and they were overwhelmingly superior in this romp. Sharp money laughed all the way to the bank in this game.

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I only played one game on Friday, but the result was a good one as the Panthers blanked the Sabres on the ice. That’s a current 12-1 run, so things are very good right now. I’ve already taken one side on the Saturday NHL slate and have ten college selections, so lots of action all day long in store.

Subscribers to any of my packages receive all my plays. No gimmicks or extra fees for supposedly higher level plays, one size fits all as far as the selections are concerned. Use the “buy now” feature on this page to get signed up, and note there’s a guarantee of a minimum five unit net profit with the monthly deal. I’ve also got a powerful net winners program with a great guarantee and details on that are available via email. Get in touch with me at cokin@cox.net.
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I’ve already posted one free play for college and one for the NFL, and I’m expecting good results with those. Here’s a Saturday night NHL spot that looks pretty attractive.

10/18 07:05PM   NHL   (21) TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING  at  (22) VANCOUVER CANUCKS

Take: (21) TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING +115

The Canucks are off to a sharp 3-0 start, but I’m taking that with a large grain of salt. Fact is, anything less than a perfect spot would have been a disappointment considering the competition. The Canucks have feasted on a menu of Calgary, Edmonton and Edmonton again. Tonight’s challenge is considerably more difficult as the Lightning make the trip west.

Tampa Bay comes into the season with high expectations, and the early returns have been okay, if not spectacular. The Lightning have only won two of their first four games, but they’ve looked better than that record might indicate.

The big difference between last year’s TampaBay entry and the current edition is that they’re going to be more physical. I really liked the acquisition of defenseman Jason Garrett. The former Canuck is a great fit with a Lightning team that’s determined to play with more of a defensive mindset. Garrett figures to be revved up for his return to Vancouver tonight, particularly since his being asked to waive his no-trade clause this summer was not especially well received when it happened.

I see one of the keys tonight resting with this being the second of back to backs for the Canucks. Vancouver had a tough time in this scenario last season and I believe they’re going to be vulnerable to the fresher and faster Lightning legs tonight.

Several of my early season plays are based on my pre-season perceptions of various teams. I’m not especially high on this Canucks squad, and feel the 3-0 start against soft opposition is a mirage. Tampa Bay represents a significant step up in competition, and with the Canucks being unrested, I don’t see them being up to the task at hand tonight. I’ve certainly got no problem with the price tag since the visitors are getting underdog odds right now. I’ll side with the Lightning to get the road win tonight.

Dave’s Free Play, Friday 10/17/14

Quick takes from the three early college games played so far this week:

Ul Lafayette appears to be getting it together. The Ragin’ Cajuns obliterated Texas State on Tuesday, and got a complete game from both the offense and defense for the first time this season. Texas State has done a nice job competing in several games, but the Bobcats were overmatched here and the game was never in doubt.

Pittsburgh got the jump on a beat up Virginia Tech squad and made it stand up. There some anxious moments late for the Panthers, but a late Hokies drive fell short and Pitt earned a much needed win. Chad Voytik flashed some running ability, and while his ceiling certainly seems limited, he’s likely to be a better QB when he uses his legs. The Virginia Tech upset at Ohio State seems more far fetched now than ever.

Utah rode the legs of Devontae Booker to a thrilling double OT win at Oregon State. This game was a close yawner for the first three quarters, but it blew up in the fourth frame and ended up being very exciting at the finish. The Utah QB situation remains in flux, but this team can obviously run the ball and the Utes are playing tough defense. Tough loss for the Beavers, and it’s the type that’s often the toughest to rally from.

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The 10-0 run ended with a shootout loss on my San Jose NHL play. It was a tough beat in that the Sharks had the lead in the shootout and let it get away. But at the same time, they were very fortunate to have even made it to overtime after getting thoroughly outplayed throughout regulation by the Islanders. I won my Giants play on the diamond, so it’s now 11-1 over the last four days.

My college card now consists of nine games on Saturday, one of which was the free play posted earlier this week. All subscribers to any of my packages get all the plays, and that’s right across the entire board. There’s a solid guarantee that is being offered with my current monthly package, and I don’t know if there’s anyone else that works a better net winners program than I do. Sign up using the “buy now” feature that can be found on this page, or contact me via email at cokin@cox.net.

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I’m going to take a look at one of Sunday’s NFL games for the free play today.

10/19 10:00 AM   NFL   (467) NEW ORLEANS SAINTS  at  (468) DETROIT LIONS

Take: (468) DETROIT LIONS -2.5

At some point, one has to just start believing what they’re seeing. That’s the case for me as far as the Detroit Lions are concerned. I’m now convinced that it’s not a mirage, and that the Lions are totally legit on defense. It’s an impressive group, and they’re just plain dominant on that side of the football right now. That cannot bode well for the visiting New Orleans Saints this Sunday.

The Saints are more reputation than reality. You can make the case they’re fortunate to be 2-3, as that win prior to the bye against the Lowly Buccaneers was anything but easy. Maybe things change, but the data complied through the first five games strongly suggests that this is simply not a good New Orleans team. The offense is still productive, but they’re not good at all at virtually everything else. I can’t say there’s no shot the Saints can turn it around, but the indicators for this happening just aren’t there.

The Lions have shortcomings on offense. It’s really starting to look as though QB Matthew Stafford is as good as he’s ever going to be. I think the Lions brass is starting to reach that same conclusion. What we’re starting to see is more game management play calling rather than the wide open Lions attack we’ve gotten used to seeing.

There are certainly other considerations as to why the Lions are getting more conservative on offense. Chiefly, it’s the staunch defense. The Lions are at the point where the offense’s job is to just not lose the game, and if that’s accomplished the defense can do the winning. There have also been some injuries to the offense, and it looks very much like Calvin Johnson will be sitting again this Sunday.

This is really coming down to what I feel is an at least mildly underrated host against what sure looks to be an overrated visitor. My personal rankings have the Lions as the #8 team in the NFL. The Saints have fallen into the 20’s, so I see them as no more than a slightly below average entry at this juncture.  Therefore, I see this number being on the cheap side. I don’t think the market has caught up with just how far the Saints have slid. That means that for the time being, this is a team that will be a fade consideration until the general perception changes. I won’t forecast a blowout, as I absolutely can see this being competitive. But laying a field goal or less with the Lions looks attractive to me.

 

Dave’s Free Play, Thursday 10/16/14

The Mountain West Conference conducted its annual media poll earlier this week. I don’t have an official vote, so I’ll cast my ballot right here. Quick comments included with each team.

1. San Diego State… The pre-season top pick in the annual media poll has frequently failed to get there, but it’s tough to see the Aztecs not winning the league this season. SDSU loses a couple of key guys, particularly Xavier Thames. But it’s a loaded roster. Winston Shepard should be a contender for Conference POY, expect Dwayne Polee to improve and by the time league play rolls around, freshman Trey Kell will be likely to contribute. I’m not sure this is another Sweet 16 team, but San Diego State is the clear favorite in this league.

2. UNLV… Okay, maybe there’s a little bias here. Maybe not. Zero returning starters might mean some early struggles, but I really feel as though it’s addition by subtraction. The Runnin’ Rebels have a roster that’s pretty well suited to what Dave Rice wants to run, as for once this is a lineup with some really good outside shooters. Big season for this coaching staff, as the locals have gotten more than restless. Expectations in the media are mixed at best, but I think UNLV gets better and earns a Big Dance invite.

3. Wyoming… Larry Shyatt’s Cowboys were ruined by an epidemic of injuries last season. If they stay healthy this season, watch out. Larry Nance, Jr is the star on what is clearly Shyatt’s best roster in some time. He’s also a master tactician and Laramie can be a real hellhole for visitors when the Cowboys are good. The Adams/Grabau backcourt is very underrated and there are some good role players who fit Shyatt’s style on this roster.

4. Boise State… Most are picking the Broncos higher than this, and on paper they probably ought to be. But I am going to have to be shown that this squad can finish a game. Boise State was definitely not Poise State at crunch time last season. Derrick Marks has loads of talent, Anthony Drmic is a candidate to lead the conference in scoring and I definitely like Mikey Thompson. The Broncos could have some problems with physical opponents, and they have to hope that all the experience on this roster delivers.

5. Fresno State…Rodney Terry clearly has the Bulldogs on the rise. This program was in sorry shape when he arrived, but not anymore. Cezar Guerrero is a really talented guard, Paul Watson was the Freshman of the Year and Terry is recruiting like crazy. I think this team is still maybe one year away from battling for an NCAA invite, but the days of Fresno State being a pushover are finished. If the newcomers contribute quickly, they could exceed even my expectations.

6. New Mexico… The Lobos figure to take a tumble in the MWC standing this season. It’s pretty clearly a transition year, as the powerhouse trio of Williams/ Bairstow/Neal have all moved on. Hugh Greenwood is now the go to guy here, and Cullen Neal will be the long range bomber that his head coach dad will need to perform well. Jordan Goodman is one of the league’s newcomers of note. But this is no longer a star studded Lobos entry and I’m not sold on their depth.

7. Colorado State… Larry Eustachy is a solid coach and he’ll coax what he can out of his Rams. But the roster just isn’t anything special, and the departure of Jon Octeus to UCLA was a crusher. Daniel Bejerano had a very good sophomore season and he could be an All_MWC candidate. But it looks to me like a second straight rebuilding season for Colorado State.

8. Utah State… Not much optimism for this edition of the Aggies. The entire starting lineup from last season has departed, and while they weren’t the most cohesive group around, that’s still a ton of experience no longer on the scene. Jalen Moore figures  to lead this team following his impressive freshman campaign, and some of the newcomers appear to be legit MWC talents. But Stew Morrill will have to work some of his magic to keep the Aggies out of the depths in this tear’s conference race.

9. Nevada… I can’t see this being a good year for the Wolf Pack. But perhaps things get better now that they’re not totally reliant on one player. Deonte Burton was amazing for this team, and at times it seemed as if his teammates were spectators than participants as they simply counted on Burton to keep them in games. Marqueze Coleman takes over the point guard duties, and if he can raise his level of play, perhaps the Wolf Pack can hang in. But matching last year’s 10-8 league record seems like a pipe dream to me.

10. Air Force… The Falcons have lots of experience, and I think Dave Pilipovich is a good coach, so maybe I’m a little low here. But with Tre’ Coggins having wrapped up his career, the only known scoring quantity on hand are Max Yon and Kamryn Williams. I think it’s just a case where Air Force doesn’t have enough MWC-level talent and as usual, depth and a profound lack of size will be an issue.

11. San Jose State… The Spartans have been awful and while there’s no place to go but up, there’s no ladder on hand right now. San Jose obviously needs to upgrade the talent, but they also need to show a little more discipline. They have no chance of success playing the tempo utilized last season and I’m not seeing anything to indicate that will change this year. SJSU figures at the bottom of the heap, and will again be an albatross around the MWC’s RPI neck.

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2-0 Wednesday as I was on the two MLB winners. That’s a 10-0 surge over the last three days, so I’m obviously in a positive frame of mind right now. Two offers available. One is the guaranteed month. That’s a full 31 days of all my plays in all sports and a guaranteed profit of at least five net units, or the service is on the house until that minimum figure is attained. Use the “buy now” feature on this page to subscribe, or email me at cokin@cox.net for further info. Also feel free to email me for details on my net winners program.

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Good results in the NHL so far, and a potentially nice slate tonight. Here’s a look at one of the games I like on the ice.

10/16 04:05 PM  NHL   (1) SAN JOSE SHARKS  at  (2) NEW YORK ISLANDERS

Take: (1) SAN JOSE SHARKS -115

It’s the final season for the Islanders at ancient Nassau County Coliseum. The Isles head to Brooklyn next year. But in the meantime, this improving NHL squad will probably suffer thanks to having to play half its games in the town dump.

Make no mistake, I absolutely feel some of the Islanders problems over the years have been directly related to the surroundings. If you think that’s a stretch, think again. To me, the job is immaterial. If the employees have to go to work in a craphole, it’s going to have an impact on production. This isn’t even debatable to me. There’s an absolute correlation between environment and attitude, and the Coliseum is without a doubt the worst facility in the NHL.

(I’m going off on a brief tangent here. This is the crux of the argument I have with too many people on the UNLV football program. I consistently get hammered when I factor in the substandard stadium and facilities as a big part of the reason the program has remained steeped in mediocrity. It’s not the only reason, but if you don’t think it matters, you’re just plain wrong. Go do some research. There are countless studies that prove beyond any doubt that the work environment has a substantial impact on employee production. So for those who want to argue this with me, either all the research is wrong or you are. Period. Now back to our regular programming.)

The Islanders are risng, and I can see them perhaps squeezing into the playoffs this season. I think they’re really going to take off next year when they move to Brooklyn. But I’m not convinced that the sizzling start is a sign that they’ve arrived. No question the goaltending got a big upgrade with the arrival of Jaroslav Halak. John Tavares is a legit star and the supporting cast is definitely better than it has been.

But the better team here is the visitor. San Jose might be the ultimate playoff clunker but from October through mid-April, this team will again be one of the best in the NHL. It’s a veteran cast with plenty of cohesiveness, and the Sharks can still be very explosive.

One thing that hasn’t apparently changed this season is that the West is still better than the East. Sure enough, Western Conference road teams are already off to a great start when visiting Eastern Conference locales.

I was surprised at the opening number on this game, which had the Islanders favored. That’s not the case anymore. San Jose has moved to the chalk in this game, and given the way they’ve started the season, I think that’s totally justified. The Islanders are getting better, but their success last year cam mostly on the road. They’ve been dismal at home with only nine wins it their last 30 games as hosts. Make it nine for 31. I’ll side with the Sharks to come away with the win tonight.

 

 

 

Dave’s Free Play, Wednesday 10/15/14

It’s time for this week’s Wise Guy Wednesday report. As always, a note that these aren’t my plays or opinions. The comments are based on information received from a variety of sources on the accounting end of the game, in Nevada, as well as other locales stateside and offshore.  This week’s report is thinner than the norm. So it’s either a quieter than normal week for the sharps, or more likely, the big moves are just going to show up a little later this usual.

306 Pittsburgh took some serious action on Tuesday from the pros. Note that’s a Thursday night game as the Panthers host Virginia Tech.

312 Houston is a wise guy side and that’s in conflict with the public, which his backing underdog Temple somewhat heavily. Note that this is a Friday night contest.

317 Miami Ohio is getting sharp play as they visit Northern Illinois. It’s the second straight week the pros have taken an anti-Huskies stance.

335 Western Michigan is getting pro dough, although it hasn’t yet shown up in the betting line. One of my contacts told me he expects he expects a flood of Broncos cash and predicted this game might close at pick ‘em by game day.

343 New Mexico burned the sharps last week but they’re coming right back with the Lobos in the underdog role against Air Force. The Falcons also frustrated the smarts last time out.

355 Nevada is drawing action as they take on BYU, but the consensus is that it’s not true sharp money and that the number could go back up between now and game day.

Two of my sources are convinced the downward movement on the 370 Alabama game is phony, and that the sharps are going to hammer the Tide come Saturday.

Big bump on favored 383 Western Kentucky on Tuesday, but no one seemed to believe this was pro money to much extent.

Finally, while it’s not a flood, there’s at least a trickle of sharp money showing on 405 Hawaii as they visit San Diego State while the public is preferring the Aztecs.

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Huge night here on Tuesday, with a 5-0 sweep that included three NHL winners plus both baseball victors. That’s actually 8-0 the last two nights, so whatever was ailing me over the weekend is now a fast fading memory. The surge over the past couple nights now has me at my high water mark for the current calendar year, so the challenge now is to keep building on that already solid bottom line.

The monthly special currently running includes a guaranteed profit of at least five net units. That’s based on nearly all plays being one unit each, and the juice is factored in as well. Subscribe using the “buy now” feature on this page. You can also email me directly at cokin@cox.net for more info, or for details on my unique net winners program.

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No sweat with the Tuesday free play on UL Lafayette as the Ragin’ Cajuns trampled Texas State. I’ll go with the first Saturday college free play today.

10/18 12:30 PM  CF   (375) CLEMSON  at  (376) BOSTON COLLEGE

Take: (376) BOSTON COLLEGE +5

This opinion certainly can’t be classified as a value play, as the line has already been hit thanks to the Clemson injury information. But I’m still of the belief Boston College is worth taking a long look at in this battle at Chestnut Hill.

BC is making some real noise in Steve Addazio’s second year the helm of the Eagles. This is definitely a program that’s back on the rise. Addazio, who previously did some good work at Temple, is starting to earn some notice nationally thanks to the recent play of the Eagles, and a win here would be huge for Boston College.

BC has not yet mastered the art of consistency, but I think it’s now a virtual given that they can play. No doubt the Eagles would love a couple of mulligans for the losses to Pittsburgh and Colorado State. But that hammering of USC was mighty impressive and the Eagles absolutely crushed North Carolina State last week. The one thing that was really noticeable in each of those wins was the physicality of this football team. They have not shown any tendency to pull back when they get a lead. Make no mistake, I’m very biased when it comes to the style of play we get from Boston College. I like teams that pound it on the ground and won’t allow their opponents to do the same. BC’s whole mindset is to win in the trenches, and that formula is working very well for them so far this season.

Clemson is likely going to be determined to show they can function at a high level without injured QB Deshaun Watson. But I’ve got substantial doubts that’s possible, as there’s a major difference in the talent level between Watson and Cole Stoudt. I can see the latter as a reasonable game manager, but he’s simply not nearly as explosive as Watson.

The key to this game is likely going to be the Clemson defense. The Tigers got run over by Georgis in the season opener, but have since really toughened up against the run. If they can force Boston College QB Tyler Murphy to throw the ball more often than is desired, the Tigers will be in great shape here. But if that BC overland attack gets cranked up, Clemson’s offense will be spending more time than they want on the sidelines.

Clemson is saying all the right things as they approach this battle. But I’m not sold that’s really the case. It’s not that the Tigers have nothing to play for, but it’s also true that there’s now a ceiling on what they can accomplish this season, particularly with Watson now merely a spectator.

Don’t overlook the revenge motive here. A much stronger Clemson entry was given fits last season by a considerably lesser BC squad. The Tigers came perilously close to getting stunned by the Eagles in Death Valley last year, with BC actually leading onto the fourth quarter of that affair. Clemson eventually prevailed on a fairly short drive followed by a fumble return for six that put the game away. But Boston College have what at the time was the $3 rated team in the polls a huge scare and the Eagles will not be short on confidence here.

This game appeals to me on some key stats as well as what I believe will be the mental aspect of the game. The betting line is no longer ideal, but it’s not terrible either. I’ll opt for Boston College to give the Tigers all they want and more, and I’ll side with the Eagles in  the home dog role.

 

Dave’s Free Play, Tuesday 10/14/14

Quebec City. Las Vegas. Saskatoon. Milwaukee. Ghana. Hell.

The Florida Panthers need to be relocated. Any of the aforementioned locales would be an upgrade over the present city this NHL franchise is calling home. I’ll admit the last two might not be the most desirable. Ghana would create logistical issues and the presumed climate in Hell is not conducive to ice hockey. But you get the point.

This team needs to be out of Miami, and the sooner the better. The Panthers enjoyed a brief period where they were relevant in Miami, but that was back in the 1990’s. Granted, the product has not been good for some time now. But the fact is that fan interest has waned to the point where the Panthers are now less than an afterthought. They play in an apparently less than ideal location as far as the arena is concerned. And it appears they’re legitimately losing money.

The Panthers have asked Broward County officials for a $78.4 million bailout. They want relief for the remaining 14 years on their contract with the county, and some help with a couple of other items as well. There was supposed to be a vote on this issue sometime this month. But, politics being what it is at virtually all times, that vote has been shelved for what will almost certainly be several months.

In the end, my guess is that Broward County should and will probably let the Panthers go. There’s a brand new NHL caliber arena opening in Quebec. Las Vegas is going to eventually house an NHL team on the Strip, it’s just a question of when. Seattle is a big league town. And so on.

Last night’s official announced attendance for the clash between the Senators and Panthers was 7311. That’s a huge drop from the previous low of 10063 on Halloween night back in 2007. I watched most of the game and if there were actually 7000 plus bodies in the building, they must have been brilliantly camouflaged.

The Panthers have already announced they will not be offering any discounts this season, nor will there be any giveaways that might attract an audience. The ownership feels it needs to prove to the county that they’re losing big bucks, and the best way to do that is to make sure no one shows up for the games. I think they’re a literal lock to succeed if their aim is to set a league record for attendance. League low, that is.

The NHL needs to accelerate this process by doing whatever is necessary to force the team’s owners to relocate the franchise. The owners would probably love to stay in Miami if they can get the county to bail them out. I get that, as they’d be sitting pretty financially if that were to happen. But it really shouldn’t. County relief or not, this franchise is now dead in Miami. They’ve lost the fan base and now the Panthers are a complete embarrassment to the league. It’s time for this team to get out of Dodge, so to speak, and the sooner the better for the NHL’s sake.

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3-0 on Monday, with a pair of winners on the ice and a snap with the Jazz in an NBA exhibition game. Off the down weekend, this was a really well timed rebound and I’m back ahead for the month overall.

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Ottawa delivered as the Monday free play. Tonight’s comp is on the Tuesday college football game. I’ve yet to decide whether this makes the personal card, but as it’s the stand alone football game, here’s my analysis and opinion as to what might take place.

10/14 05:00 PM  CF   (301) UL-LAFAYETTE  at  (302) TEXAS STATE

Take: (302) UL-LAFAYETTE +2.5

Don’t look for a great deal of defense tonight as the Ragin’ Cajuns and the Bobcats hook up. Neither team is much good at stopping opponents, and with the national TV lights on the scene, I’m assuming the play books are thrown wide open tonight.

UL-Lafayette has been a disappointment this season. The Cajuns were the consensus top choice in the Sun Belt this season. Actually, they’re 1-0 in league play, so they could well get it together and win the SBC. But they have not played good football. ULL has had a real issue with its turnover ratio, QB Terrance Broadway has been erratic and the defense has been mostly terrible despite being very experienced.

Texas State stands 3-2 and nearly upset Illinois on the road. Dennis Franchione has done a fine job of building this program from scratch in just a handful of years. The Bobcats have a sleight of hand QB in Tyler Jones and Terrence Franks is an explosive RB who is off a great game against Idaho. But Texas State is awful defending the run, and Elijah McGuire could have a huge night carrying the football for the road team.

I really don’t see much to separate these teams. Louisiana demolished the Bobcats last year, but Texas State has clearly gotten better and the Cajuns have apparently declined. In my rankings, I have ULL two spots ahead of Texas State, so it’s a virtual wash and with the home field added in, the number is right where it ought to be.

The key could come down to nerves. That’s where the visitors have an advantage. ULL is a senior laden team that has been in its share of spotlight games, including three straight bowl appearances. This is a mostly new experience for Texas State and if anyone is more likely to rattle under the bright lights, I have to think it’s Texas State. It’s only a lean for me as this is written, but the only side I’ll consider playing is UL-Lafayette.

 

 

Dave’s Free Play, Monday 10/13/14

Lots of chatter last night about those dreaded bad beats. I get kind of amused by this talk, as anytime there’s a close loss, so many of the bettors on the losing side immediately knee jerk to the bad beat reaction.

Personally, I’m more inclined to try and find out why a close game lost and whether or not I had what might have been the right side and got burned. Crying “bad beat” is easy and nothing positive gets derived in the process. It’s often a case of being on the wrong side and simply getting lucky to even be in the hunt for the win.

Here’s a good example, and I was on the losing side of this one. The Giants lost a tough one to the Cardinals in Game Two of the NLCS last night. It’s easy to call this a bad beat. The Giants led 3-2 pretty late, and that’s normally going to mean a victory. In this instance, they lost the lead, fell behind, caught up in the the top of the ninth and then lost on the Kolten Wong bomb off Sergio Romo. Tough loss? Definitely. Bad Beat? Absolutely not!

The truth is, the Giants caught some crazy good breaks in this game and still managed to lose it. They got a hit when the ground knocked the ball out of Jon Jay’s glove. They got a bloop double on a ball just out of the reach of Matt Holiday that was also just barely a fair ball. The Giants were beneficiaries of an injury to superstar catcher Yadier Molina that ended up having a major impact on the game. They scored the tying run on a wild pitch where Matt Duffy scored all the way from second base. Those were all good fortune occurrences with the run scored by Duffy something that almost never happens.

The Cardinals, on the other hand, hit four home runs in the game and somehow nearly lost. Teams that hit four dingers in one game don’t lose very often.

The plain truth is anyone who bet the Giants, myself included, was remarkably fortunate to have a chance to win this game. And this was certainly not anything resembling a bad beat.

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Lousy weekend. I dumped about 4.5 units or so back to the bad guys on Saturday and Sunday combined. Lots of good results I’ve been pleased to report on here for the last several months, but I didn’t get it done this weekend. The goal now is simple enough. Regain the rhythm and get the results rolling the way I prefer.

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Push is the official result on the Dolphins free play as that was the consensus line when the pick was published. I won’t go off on a rant here,  but Joe Philbin did everything he could to give his team the best chance to lose the football game and he succeeded. The Dolphins are probably going to have to make a coaching change soon, but that’s another story for another day. I’ll hit the ice for Monday’s comp play.

10/13 04:35 PM  NHL   (57) OTTAWA SENATORS  at  (58) FLORIDA PANTHERS

Take: (57) OTTAWA SENATORS -115

What happens in October often times doesn’t have much to do with how teams eventually end up come the end of the season. I think this game is a good example along those lines.

I like the moves Florida made in the off-season and expect this team to be improved as the season progresses. On the flip side, I’m of the belief the Sens could decline some this year. Losing Jason Spezza was a huge blow and Ottawa appears to be a team that is going to have some trouble generating offense.

But for right now, the Senators are in better shape than the Panthers. Ottawa is still fresh enough to be able to force the tempo they want while relying on good defense and what should be solid goaltending.

The Panthers are going to likely need some time to sort things out as there was a load of turnover on this roster. The cohesiveness isn’t there yet. That makes Florida a team that’s probably a decent fade right now. But they’re also a team that bears close watching as once they fit the pieces together, they could be a live entry, especially as a dog.

As for tonight, I’m basically taking Craig Anderson over Roberto Luongo. I’m assuming Anderson starts in goal for Ottawa. He’s healthy, which is something that wasn’t the case for much of last season. Anderson has also owned the Panthers throughout his career, and while that’s not a huge stat for me, it sure doesn’t hurt. Luongo is off to a sluggish start, and while he can definitely get it together and start rolling, Luongo is not a great option right now.

Later in the season, I can at least speculate that getting Florida as a home dog against Ottawa might well be worth a wager. But for the present, I’ve got to side with the Senators and as long as this price doesn’t climb, I believe they’re worth a shot tonight.

 

Dave’s Free Play, Sunday 10/12/14

Quick notes from several of the Saturday college games:

Baylor won the most insane game of the day with the greatest comeback in school history. The Bears were down 21 in the 4th quarter and scored 24 straight to win 61-58. TCU’s decision to throw a difficult fade on 4th and 3 on its final possession was a total head scratcher.

USC got lucky when Arizona missed a field goal at the finish, as the Trojans prevailed 28-26. This is one occasion when freezing the kicker paid off, as the Wildcats appeared to have already won it with the late three. The whistle was after the ball had been snapped, by the way.

West Virginia came all the way back from a big fourth quarter deficit and knocked off Texas Tech on a 55-yard field goal at the finish line. The Mountaineers haven’t won many of these the last few years, so it’s a big win for their program.

Wisconsin needs to recruit a quarterback who can hit a target. The Badgers held on to win by 10 against Illinois, but this could have easily been a 5-TD win with even occasional accuracy by the Badger passers.

Northwestern won the stats against Minnesota, but the Gophers got a 100 yard tie-breaking kickoff return to get past the Wildcats.

Nick Chubb stepped in for suspended Todd Gurley and a fired up Georgia squad completely dismantled Missouri on the road. This might well have been the most dominant defensive performance I’ve seen all season.

Oklahoma was extremely fortunate to escape with the win against Texas. The Sooners were outplayed but got both a defensive and special teams score for the narrow win.

Marshall won big against Middle Tennessee and could have been an even wider margin if not for some bad penalties late in the first half. The Thundering Herd will be heavily favored in each of their remaining games and should finish 12-0.

Duke was impressive in getting the win at Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets got a couple of late scores to make it respectable, but the Blue Devils looked like the more complete team throughout.

Eastern Michigan is a winner! The Eagles were down 10-0 early to Buffalo, but really took this one over en route to a 37-27 upset.

Massachusetts also cracked the win column as they blew Kent State out in the fourth quarter. This was a little closer than the 40-17 final. but the Minutemen were clearly the better team.

Larry Blakeney has been at Troy for roughly forever, so his announcement that this would be his final season as head coach figured to generate a response. The Trojans came out blazing and easily topped Mew Mexico State.

Ohio U won the stats against Bowling Green but they sure didn’t win where it counts. The Falcons rolled 31-13, and the buzz that this could be it for Frank Solich at Ohio is picking up steam.

Notre Dame wasn’t sharp at all against North Carolina, but the Irish managed to win 50-43. The Tar Heels are one of the worst tackling teams I have ever seen, and that’s not an exaggeration.

Boston College was outstanding in a convincing romp over North Carolina State. The Eagles OL is very cohesive and this team can really run the football.

Oregon blew out UCLA, with the 42-30 final not at all representative of how the game went. In addition to getting crushed at home, Jim Mora Jr. was highlight reel material as he got in what was kind of a hilarious shouting match with one of his assistants.

Mississippi State turned the ball over on four straight possessions and still won big in front of a frenzied crowd at Starkville. Auburn also had four giveaways in what was kind of a sloppy game. But there’s no denying that the Bulldogs are now serious playoff contenders.

Ole Miss had no letdown off the thrilling win against Alabama. The Rebels were easy winners at College Station, leading Texas A&M 35-7 before coasting to the finish line.

Louisville is really tough defensively, and just missed the upset at Clemson. The Cardinals got stopped on the Clemson two-yard line in absorbing a tough 23-17 loss.

UAB turned it over nine times the prior two games. But the Blazers were +5 net turnovers this week as they throttled North Texas.

Kansas played Oklahoma State very tough at Lawrence and just missed the monster upset. The Jayhawks certainly appeared to respond well to the departure of Charlie Weis as head coach.

Central Michigan is now a force to be reckoned with in the MAC. The Chippewas fell behind 7-0 at the start, but demolished Northern Illinois the rest of the way in a convincing win.

California ran out of gas and got drilled at home by a much fresher Washington squad. The Bears turnover issues certainly didn’t help, but they weren’t beating the Huskies in this game.

Alabama is simply not as dominant as recent editions of the Crimson Tide. They were fortunate to get out of town with the 14-13 win in an ugly game against Arkansas.

Speaking of ugly, Penn State was at Michigan. The Wolverines finally got a desperately needed win, but there were zero style points either way in this one.

Houston changed QB’s for its game at Memphis and overcame an early deficit to get the mild upset against the Tigers.

East Carolina was extremely flat at South Florida and trailed by ten at the half. The Pirates have way more talent than the Bulls, however, and eventually gained enough control to get the ho-hum win.

LSU and Florida are both struggling this season, but the Bayou Bengals found a way to win with a 50-yard FG at the finish. There’s virtually no way Bill Muschamp will be coaching the Gators much longer, is there?

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My first red Saturday of the season, as I ended up 4-5 in the colleges. I’m now down roughly a half unit for the current month, which I’m not thrilled about. Note that the prior several months have been very productive, so the overall bottom line for 2014 is pretty solid. I think I ate a little too much chalk on this card, and also simply missed a couple of spots (notably Troy) that should have been played. It’s always easy after the fact, of course, but there are also always lessons that can be learned.

Probably a short card in the NFL on Sunday, although I like what I’m on, no question about that. Check out the current monthly special which includes a guaranteed profit of at least five net units. That’s purchasable using the “buy now” feature on this page, or simply email me at cokin@cox.net. That’s also how to get in touch with me for details on what I believe to be the best net winners program in the industry.

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A split on the two college free plays, as Indiana missed but UMass came through nicely. The NFL comp for this week was in yesterday’s blog. I’ll take a look at the one MLB playoff game on today’s schedule here.

10/12 5:05 PM   MLB   (957) SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS  at  (958) ST. LOUIS CARDINALS

Take: (957) SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS +115

Just in case you haven’t been paying attention, the dogs are running wild so far in this post-season. That trend was maintained on Saturday as the two road teams emerged with wins, and I can see more of the same taking place today.

There’s certainly mot much I can say negatively about Lance Lynn, the Game Two starter for the Cardinals. He’s been remarkably consistent all season and with Adam Wainwright just not 100% right now, Lynn is the ace of the St. Louis staff, at least for the time being. The one downer for Lynn here is his 0-3, 7.98 career ledger against the Giants. But that’s really small sample data and I don’t consider it to be particularly significant.

What does matter to me is the way Jake Peavy is throwing for the Giants. He is red hot. Peavy has not allowed more than two earned runs in ten straight starts. His control has been close to razor sharp, and if Peavy isn’t beating himself, chances are not too many hitters will, either. When I see current form data like Peavy’s and a nice little plus sign attached to boot, I get very interested.

Getting the Game One win was huge for San Francisco. The Giants now can play loose, as they’ve at worst accomplished the split at Busch and now own home field advantage. We’re also seeing a common theme in the these playoffs. The teams falling behind at the outset of the series are having a great deal of trouble recovering. Perhaps it’s the pressure of being favored while behind, or something else I can’t put my thumb on. But the results have been about as clear cut as it gets.

I think this game rates as a tossup on paper with Peavy battling Lynn, but I definitely prefer to be backing the team with the momentum. That’s clearly the Giants off yesterday’s shutout win, so I’ll back San Francisco here as underdogs to take the 2-0 series lead.

 

 

Dave’s Free Play, Saturday 10/11/14

Quick takes from the four Thursday and Friday college games:

BYU looked as though it would overcome loads of adversity as they sprinted to a nice lead at Central Florida. But the home team rallied and won in overtime, despite getting trounced on the rushing stats. Soph QB Justin Holman is looking like he’s going to be a major weapon for UCF as he gains experience.

Stanford, as usual, left too many points off the scoreboard with mistakes on offense. But the Cardinal defense did a terrific job and Stanford nailed a front door cover with a late TD. This really should have been a 4 TD or thereabouts win,. and if Stanford can’t correct the offense, they’re not going to win this league.

San Diego State turned it over four times at New Mexico, but thanks to Rocky Long’s defense, the Aztecs were able to knock off the Lobos. SDSU also did a nice job of putting a loss at Fresno State that was primarily the result of horrendous officiating behind them to get an important road win.

Beat up UNLV came out breathing fire and raced to a big lead against Fresno State. The Rebels wilted after halftime, but had a chance to win on a late FG thanks to some dreadful kicking by the Bulldogs. The Rebels missed the chip shot for the regulation win, and that looked like big trouble in the extra session. But the defense got a great stop, UNLV coach Bobby Hauck switched kickers and the Rebels got the three for a great win. UNLV now gets a much needed bye week to hopefully get healthier.

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1-1 on Friday with an easy NHL winner and an easy college loser. The usual big card today on the gridiron, and while nothing is set yet, some prospects for play on the ice as well.

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It’s Saturday, so as is the norm, here’s a free NFL play for tomorrow.

10/12 10:00 AM   NFL   (259) GREEN BAY PACKERS  at  (260) MIAMI DOLPHINS

Take: (260) MIAMI DOLPHINS +3

If you just look at the numbers, Green Bay deserves to be favored at Miami as they’re simply the better football team. But when breaking down the actual match ups, this game gets much fuzzier in terms of picking the outright winner.

It’s just not a great matchup for the favorite. The prolific Packers offense can be contained by this Dolphins defense. Meanwhile, when the Dolphins can run the football, they’re not a bad team and that’s something they should be able to accomplish here. I’m not expecting the Fins to just race up and down the field at will. But I can’t see why they shouldn’t be able to put together a few nice drives.

There is one aspect of this game that worries me as far as Miami is concerned. The Dolphins special teams have been abysmal. They’re dead last in the NFL in special teams efficiency and that is an area where immediate improvement is mandatory. The upside here is that the coaching staff is well aware of the problems in this area, and they’ve had a couple weeks to try and rectify things thanks to the bye week.

I’m not going hung ho in making a case for Miami. Rather, I’m staying with what I’ve felt since prior to the season. That is, the Packers are good, but not elite, and are therefore getting overrated by the experts as well as the majority of the bettors. The fact that the Packers are coming into this one off a laughably easy win earns a little more value on the dog. And the truth is, I’m really not giving Green Bay any special credit for crushing a Vikings team that was forced to go with overmatched Christian Ponder under center.

This should be one of the best games of the day. It’s what I feel is a really good spot for the home team, and getting at least that field goal is a nice little cushion. If the Dolphins can avoid a major blunder on special teams, I think they have a real shot at the upset. I’ll sign on for the Dolphins plus the points.