A day off from the commentary, that will return on Monday. Meanwhile, a quick summary of the MLB season to date as far as my plays are concerned.
Record to date is +7.16, so it’s a reasonable start to the season. I’ll also mention that this is with what is a ridiculous imbalance on close results. Saturday was a great example. I won comfortably with the Astros and Twins. I lost with the Red Sox and Rockies, each in extra innings. I’ve lost 12 of my last 14 one-run games, and five straight wrong sides in games that have gone past nine innings.
So if the breaks even out as everyone seems to say they do (they actually don’t if one is playing more dogs than favorites, but that’s for another day) things look pretty good. However, it’s still aggravating to look at a decent current bottom line and imagine what it could be with just a little less miserable luck.
In any event, I’m pleased with my analysis for the most part and expect it to keep getting better as more current season data becomes available. For info on how to receive ALL my plays each day, and the only way to get ALL the plays is directly through me, shoot an email my way at email@example.com.
No complaints on the Rockies extra inning loser. That part seemed inevitable to be honest. But the fact is, the Giants had runners in scoring position all night and Colorado was actually really fortunate to still have a chance at the finish here. A rare O/U call for Sunday’s free play.
(919) RED SOX at (920) ORIOLES
Take: OVER 9 -120
I don’t do much with totals in any sport, as I’ve always had more success with sides. But when the situation presents itself as it would seem to here, I’m willing to take my chances on betting an Over/Under prop.
I believe we have a pair of go against pitchers going between the Red Sox and Orioles as Wade Miley opposes Bud Norris. The key is that neither guy can find the strike zone with any consistency, and walks can and often do lead to crooked numbers getting hung up on the scoreboard.
Miley and Norris each have extreme BB rates so far this season, and while it’s a small sample to be sure, this pair will have to show me they can avoid issuing free passes before either becomes even remotely trustworthy. Miley has averaged fewer than two walks per nine innings for his career, so this is a disturbing current trend for the veteran southpaw.
Norris has problems that appear to go much deeper than just the walks. He’s been way off since the start of spring training and at this point one has to think Norris is on the verge of losing his spot in the Baltimore rotation. The righty has had some bad luck on balls in play with a ludicrous .421 BABIP. But part of that is the control problem as he’s being forced to throw hittable pitches thanks to his inability to locate.
Neither the Boston nor the Baltimore bullpen is especially fresh right now, the overnight forecast is for a breeze blowing out and we’ve got a pair of pitchers in less than stellar form, with one of them looking absolutely horrible. This certainly would seem to point to a game where runs are going to be scored. Both the Red Sox and Orioles have been solid Over teams so far this season and I expect more of the same today. Let’s go Over 9 as Boston and Baltimore finish off their weekend series.