Cokin’s Corner, Friday 1/29/16

  • January 29, 2016

Well, that was fun. Long story short, I decided to do some uphill walking on the treadmill and managed to throw my back out in the process. The only reason I mention this is that sitting at the computer is presently an ordeal, so this is going to be a quickie edition, with just the Friday free play.

683 GREEN BAY  @  684 MILWAUKEE

Take: 683 GREEN BAY +4.5

Green Bay wants to play Chip Kelly-style basketball. In other words, go as quickly as they possibly can. Milwaukee will try to stop the Phoenix from doing so, and that battle of wills is likely going to be the deciding factor in this game.

One way to measure what’s likely to happen is to see what Milwaukee has done playing extreme up tempo teams. Bottom line, the Panthers have had some troubles against this type of opponent. I show them 3-3 against top 100 adjusted tempo offenses. Two of those wins were against weak sisters, so I pretty much dismissed those. But Milwaukee lost to Duquesne, lost to South Dakota, nipped Detroit by three and lost to Oakland. That’s obviously a very small sample, but it’s at least a little revealing.

As for Green Bay, the Phoenix are now a completely different style team from past years, and it has not surprisingly taken the personnel some time to adjust. But the team has seemingly been improving and I look at that as a positive tonight.

This will be the first time in several meetings that Milwaukee will be the favorite against Green Bay, and while I can’t argue against that being the case, I see this as a matchup that might end up favoring the underdog. I’ll take the points with Green Bay this evening.