Cokin’s Corner, Friday 8/25/17
Anyone with even a passing interest in the Saturday fight between Floyd Mayweather and Connor McGregor is probably at least a little aware of the insane betting pattern that has been taking place.
I’ve been around sports gambling for what seems like forever, and based on my age it’s pretty close to that, huh? (That’s known as preemptive ball busting, where I bust my own before anyone else gets a chance to do so.) I can honestly say I have never seen anything quite like this.
The ticket count disparity is nuts. We’re talking roughly nine out of every ten wagers placed here in Nevada on the McGregor side. This despite the fact most oddsmakers will readily admit that the “true line” bears little semblance to the actual betting line. The general consensus among those who make the numbers is the Mayweather should rightfully be priced anywhere from 25:1 to perhaps as high as 50:1.
Obviously, no one was ever going to see prices like that. The proof is in the betting pattern that has indeed taken place here. The books knew the public would fire on McGregor, and they’ve done so in mind boggling numbers.
Note however that the ticket count is not the money count. The whopping majority of the largest wagers and the action from what the books consider to be sharp or respected bettors has been virtually all Mayweather. The ardent belief among that faction is that regardless of the outcome, the value is crystal clear with the line as low as it is.
My pick is the standard one I’ve made in so many Floyd fights I lost count long ago. Mayweather by decision. Unless Floyd has gotten old, which is always a possibility, he can box circles around McGregor and Mayweather is the best defensive fighter I’ve ever seen.
Here’s another prediction. I think this one falls into the somewhat standard category for Floyd fights as well. As soon as the event concludes, fans will be bitching about the lack of excitement and/or the result. They will swear en masse to never again attend or buy a pay-per-view that Mayweather is a part of.
And then the next time he’s in the squared circle, they will.
Just one play on Thursday, which was also the daily free play, and that came through as the Eagles won an entertaining exhibition game against the Dolphins. I’m probably going to play one more preseason game sometime today. I’ve played a good amount of games on next week’s college slate as well as one this weekend. Plus, I’ve got some Week One NFL action already pending.
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Good work by the Eagles to secure the win and cover as the Thursday free play. I’ll toss out a Friday baseball game for today’s comp.
TIGERS (Verlandet) at WHITE SOX (Gonzalez)
Take: WHITE SOX +145
Loads of respect for Justin Verlander, who is once again putting together a fine season for the Tigers. I know the price tag is high as far as the dollars go, but I have to say I’m really surprised one of the contenders didn’t ante up to get this guy. He’s absolutely a guy who can be the difference between making the playoffs or sitting things out come October. Plus, if it’s a team in the win or go home sudden death scenario, he’s a pretty good option to take the baseball and deliver a clutch performance.
All that said, this is a big betting line. Not that the White Sox are any good, but the Pale Hose has at least been close to respectable at home. The Tigers are a grotesque 24-39 on the road. van with Verlander on the hill, that’s a bit of an outsized price for a bad away team to be spotting.
I also wonder about the level of interest here for the Tigers as a team. They’re off a home series with the Yankees in which emotions ended up running very high. Just in case you missed it, the benches emptied three times in Thursday’s game, and eight players ended up getting ejected. Going from that craziness to an absolutely meaningless game against the White Sox is not ideal and its conceivable the Tigers could be a little shorthanded tonight.
Nite the last time these teams met the Tigers earned the series sweep, so that nifty little revenge angle is also in play here. I played the White Sox and will use them as the Friday free play.