Cokin’s Corner, Monday 1/25/16
Super Bowl 50 is set, with the Carolina Panthers set to battle the Denver Broncos. It’s a matchup between the two #1 seeds in their respective conferences. The QB duel between the aging gunslinger (Peyton Manning) and the new fast draw sensation (Cam Newton) is a natural for some kind of commercial.
I probably won’t get into any in depth breakdown of the game for a few days. There’s really no rush on my end, as I have a pair of tickets purchased a little ways back on the NFC (one at -1, the other a short priced ML bet) at what will be a much better tag than will be available at any time from now till kickoff.
A couple quick observations with no analysis. Carolina is going to be ultra-popular at the betting windows. The early wagerers were all over the Panthers, with the ticket count in the 3:1 neighborhood.
The Over will also be the heavy Totals choice from a consensus standpoint, although I don’t envision the ticket percentage disparity being close to what it’s going to be on the side.
I’ll have much more over the next couple of weeks with perspective from the other side of the counter, and be sure to listen to the radio show each day for what should be some great insight from some of the top bookmakers in Nevada. The Las Vegas Sportsline airs weekdays from 2-3PM PST on ESPN1100/100.9 here in Las Vegas.
I split the two football games, with the win on Denver and no shot with the overwhelmed Cardinals. The buckets went 1-2 on Sunday. Overall, an okay week, although I gave back a couple units the last couple days. For info on how to receive all my plays, sent out as I play them myself, shoot an email to firstname.lastname@example.org.
Purdue was more like Purdud in the second half against Iowa. This game was close to a replay of the first meeting between the Boilermakers and Iowa, and if you’re a Purdue fan, this game had to be somewhat discouraging. I also had issued a free play early in the week on the Cardinals, and that was finished shortly after the coin flip. Here’s a Monday Sun Belt call that will be on my card.
539 GEORGIA SOUTHERN @ 540 APPALACHIAN STATE
Take: GEORGIA SOUTHERN +3.5
The records for these two teams won’t show it, but both Georgia Southern and Appalachian State have shown some considerable improvement recently, and this might turn out to be a pretty good under the radar game.
Georgia Southern has split its last four games, and while the Eagles are still a very poor entry when it comes to shooting the basketball, other aspects of their game have gotten much better. Georgia Southern is actually leading the Sun Belt in turnover percentage on both the offensive and defensive ends, and that’s pretty impressive.
Those turnover stats are also the key to this selection. Appalachian State has upped its performance level just like the Eagles since conference play got started. But the one area in which the Mountaineers have had continued issues is in the turnover category. Appalachian State is dead last in the SBC in turnover percentage, and just as with Georgia Southern, that’s on both offense and defense.
This is pretty compelling stuff for me. I really like it when I can find an underdog with its strongest aspect also happening to be the weakest link for the favorite, and that’s what I will get here with Georgia Southern.
Additionally, it’s not a bad situational fade for Appalachian State. The Mountaineers are off back to back outright underdog wins against Arkansas State and Georgia State. Now they’re laying points, and that’s certainly an unfamiliar role for the Mountaineers. In fact, they’ve been chalk just twice all season and Appalachian State lost each of those game straight up.
The downside here is that Georgia Southern shoots bricks with the worst of them, and the lack of accuracy is simply always going to be a concern. But with a number of categorical edges in head to head comparisons, including the aforementioned turnover stats, I’m seeing the Eagles as a very live dog tonight. I’ll take the available points with Georgia Southern.