Cokin’s Corner, Monday 5/28/19
Best wishes for an enjoyable Memorial Day. Lots of excitement here in Las Vegas, as the Stanley Cup Finals get underway this evening. Golden Knights Fever is running rampant throughout the city, and that’s putting it mildly. As for my abbreviated blogs, back to the normal routine on Tuesday.
A short card for me on Sunday, with the Tigers delivering a win as my only selection. The season to date now stands at roughly +29.6 net units with almost all the plays being one unit each. Awesome ROI to this point. For info on how to subscribe and receive all my plays, shoot me an email at firstname.lastname@example.org.
The Monday free play has already been sent out to subscribers as an official selection.
GIANTS (Suarez) at ROCKIES (Bettis)
Take: ROCKIES -120
This is probably the first purely situational play I’ve made all season. It’s really not a fit on the math, as Chad Bettis is a lower end starting pitcher who seems ripe for regression. Andrew Suarez will go for the Giants. Suarez had a couple of really nice starts following his arrival in the majors, but his last three outings have been really rough.
The key here is the scheduling,. The Giants are coming off the Sunday night game and having to travel. This has been a popular fade angle for quite some time, and it’s going very well thus far this season. Thus far, seven teams have played on Sunday night and then had to ravel for a Monday game. Those teams are 2-5 to date this season. One of the winners was the Cubs, who were traveling back home for their Monday game. The other six were heading on the road and have gone 1-5.
It’s an angle that has a logical rationale as to why it can be productive and there’s a bit of a bonus here as it will be the first appearance for Suarez at Coors. That’s another long term fade angle with a pretty good track record. The line on the game, while not qualifying as a value play for me based on my numbers, is at least pretty palatable. I’ll go ahead and take the Rockies in this one.