Cokin’s Corner, Saturday 2/9/19
Two for the price of none today on the free plays. I’m not playing the main event on the marquee, which is the eagerly anticipated Duke-Virginia rematch. But I do gave a lean on the game. I’ll also take one of the plays I’m sending to subscribers as what amounts to the official daily comp.
An important note regarding what I’ll be posting at the various pay sites for Saturday. I have 14 plays altogether. They’re all culled from the various late season angles I utilize. But with that many plays, I’m reducing all but one to 0.5x wagers. That roughly translates to 1.5% of bankroll per bet for me, so (to be candid) no one will buy plays rated that low. I also don’t have any real analysis on those plays as they’re all what would be classified as system selections. The one full unit play is the one I’ll be posting at all the websites.
On to Duke-Virginia. The Cavaliers ere currently -2, but I believe this number could tick up a bit. I think this game is absolutely enormous for Virginia, but not just because of the obvious revenge motive. To me, it’s a real must win for the Cavaliers in terms of their psyche. Simply stated, as dominant as Virginia has been, this is a team that needs to win a game that matters. And there is no game, at least until the Big Dance, that can possibly matter more to the Cavaliers.
Duke is absolutely capable of scoring the series sweep and I definitely see this one being a real thriller. But while must win certainly doesn’t mean will win, I am at least leaning to Virginia to get this one in the win column. Not a play for me, but I will call it Virginia by 4.
Here’s the official free play for Saturday. This is a half unit play for my subscribers and it’s a fit on one of the late season angles that i like to follow.
683 WILLIAM & MARY at 684 HOFSTRA
Take: WILLIAM & MARY +12
Rematch of one of the craziest games of the season to date. Hofstra won a remarkable 93-90 triple overtime decision against the Tribe. I’m a big fan of backing close home loss, now road dog revenge sides (albeit they’re only 50% this season to date). The Pride are in control of the CAA, but they do have Charleston on deck, which is bigger game. Note Hofstra is also off what was close to a perfect game against Elon and they could well relax a bit here. I don’t see much chance of the outright upset, but I like the dog to compete. William & Mary plus the points is the choice.