Cokin’s Corner, Saturday 5-21-16
For anyone setting a price on whether the Raiders end up moving to Las Vegas, here’s a good piece of advice. Lower the odds.
I’m not saying the Las Vegas Raiders are a sure thing, because they’re not. No shovels in the ground yet for a new stadium no guarantee that happens.
But with no opposition from Jerry Jones and now stated support from Robert Kraft, the snickering about the NFL allowing a team to exist in Las Vegas has come to a screeching halt. I don’t think it’s outrageous to suggest that the two most powerful owners in the league are going to swing more than a handful of undecided voters if push comes to shove on a possible franchise relocation.
There are still objections from the locals that will get lots of play in the media. Same old stuff. Bad element, traffic and parking issues, too expensive for residents, yadayadayada. Let’s call it straight. None of that matters to the people who will run the franchise, nor does the NFL give a rat’s behind about it.
I think it’s all about the stadium and how it will get paid for at this point. I do think there’s going to be a serious battle on that front. But the cynic in me is pretty sure that when push comes to shove, the guys with the big bucks and the serious juice are going to get their way. Like it or not, that’s reality.
I’ll be honest, I really don’t care either way as my Sunday NFL experience will continue to be from my big old beat up easy chair that’s been broken in just the way I like it for a whole lotta years. But for those who are thrilled with the prospect of tailgating, wearing the team colors and being part of the amazing spectacle that’s unique to NFL cities, I think it’s getting really close to happening.
I’m in split mode this week. 2-2 on Friday night. Saturday’s card looks ultra-thin right now as I’m not seeing much I’m willing to risk any money on just yet. But once the numbers begin to move in the morning, that could change.
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Sure enough, that incredible Reds bullpen did it again last night, and that was good news for the free play on the Mariners. I’ll go the underdog route for today’s comp.
DIAMONDBACKS (Ray) at CARDINALS (Leake)
Take: DIAMONDBACKS +130
Nothing particularly in depth or revealing with this call. It’s basically just the math up and down the line and what I’m perceiving as accompanying value in the betting line.
I’ve got Robbie Ray with a starting pitcher advantage over Mike Leake. It’s not a landslide by any means, but Ray ranks higher on my list by a little bit. The bullpens are actually pretty close, with the Redbirds owning a slim edge, but actually not a significant one.
On offense, I have the check mark on the Arizona side. That’s with the lefty/righty splits figured in, to be sure. Once again this year, the Redbirds are simply not especially proficient at handling southpaws. That should give Ray a decent shot at getting in six or so quality innings today.
Let’s also give the small sample check mark to the Arizona side. They’re doing a great job on the road this season, and surprisingly, the Cardinals are struggling some at home through the season’s first quarter.
This is an all about the value play for me. I make the Cardinals the chalk on my data, but it’s more like -120 than the actual current line. I do expect this number to come down from where it presently is, so chances are getting in early will be beneficial. But at +130, it’s a relatively easy decision for me, and I’m taking the Diamondbacks.