Cokin’s Corner, Saturday 5/20/17
Here’s a quick Friday recap and my free play for Saturday in abbreviated blog. I split my two Friday MLB plays, with a relatively easy winner on the Nationals-Braves game Over the number, and an extra inning loser on the Royals. KC closer Kelvin Herrera blew a 3-1 ninth inning lead. In the bottom of the tenth inning, a pair of supposedly major league pitchers issued three walks on 14 pitches to start the inning, and the Twins ended up getting the win without a hit.
I won’t have to worry about any blown leads by a bad bullpen with the Saturday comp selection, as the result will be based only on the first five innings of the game.
DIAMONDBACKS at PADRES (Ray/Perdomo)
Take: PADRES F5
Figure on this line being in the even money neighborhood, perhaps Padres -105. I’m basing this virtually exclusively on the starting pitchers. Robbie Ray gets the call for the Snakes, while Luis Perdomo is on the mound for the Friars.
Ray is a mess. The Arizona lefty can make hitters look ridiculous at times with his array of swing and miss stuff. But Ray is also his own worst enemy with his horrendous control. Walk rates in excess of five per nine innings are bad news. Plus, while Ray is going to rack up the K’s, when contact gets made, it’s hard contact far too frequently. Ray has an absurdly high 50.5% hard hit rate, which is the worst of any big league starter, and that’s by a wide margin.
Perdomo is almost the polar opposite of Ray as far as the batted balls are concerned. The San Diego righty has a phenomenal 70% ground ball rate, and a very impressive 23% hard hit rate. Perdomo also owns a very solid BB/K ratio. he still hasn’t been able to win a decision, but that’s not really Perdomo’s fault.
San Diego is hopelessly inept against lefties, so there’s the red flag involved with this play. But as long as Ray remains apparently committed to trying to strike everyone out, it might not take much for the home team to put a few runs on the board early in this game.
I don’t want any part of the bullpen battle, as that clearly favors the Diamondbacks. So I’m going to make my play on the first five innings option and I’ll support Perdomo and the Padres this time.