Cokin’s Corner, Sunday 5/28/17

  • May 27, 2017

It’s a holiday weekend, so I’ll reward myself with a couple of days off as far as the commentary is concerned. But no vacation from the daily handicapping. Here’s the quick Saturday recap, the obligatory promo, and my Sunday free play.

I ended up going 0-1 on Saturday as the Braves were my only actual play. That missed, but I wisely got off two other games, one on a pitching change I didn’t like, and another when the O/U came higher than acceptable to me for an Over play. As it turned out, those were wise decisions. 0-1 is a whole lot more palatable than 0-3. I’m really enjoying the results of late, and expect to return to black ink today.

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Here’s the Sunday free play on one of today’s baseball games.

RANGERS (Cashner) at BLUE JAYS (Biagini)

Take: BLUE JAYS -157/BLUE JAYS -1.5 +125 (split unit)

No fear about going against Andrew Cashner, who has what I would call a hugely misleading ERA. There’s nothing to suggest this will continue and I expect a substantial regression from Cashner. The biggest issue is a horrendous 5.0/4.2 BB/K ratio.

The Blue Jays will send Joe Biagini, who has struggled in his last two starts after two very good efforts upon entering the rotation. But Biagini seems to be a different pitcher at home, and I would expect some improvement today.

I think there’s a pitcher advantage on the Toronto side, but what I like more here is the team momentum variable. The Jays are a different team both mentally and physically now that Donaldson and Tulowitzki have returned from lengthy disabled list stints. It’s an intangible that I think you can actually see, as this team simply has more confidence and energy with two big cogs back in action.

Steep price on this one, so rather than risk the full unit just on the money line, I’m going to split the wager between the money line and the runs line in expectation of another Blue Jays victory.