Cokin’s Corner, Thursday 12/27/18
I definitely did not see this one coming. Justin Herbert provided the stunner with the announcement that he’s going to return to Oregon for his senior season.
Herbert was the favorite to be the first QB off the board in the 2019 draft. That’s what makes this news a shocker, at least from my vantage point. I’ll be happy to give him props for honoring his college commitment, being true to his school, whatever.
But I think Herbert made a really bad decision. First off, there’s no guarantee he remains the #1 QB prospect. There’s always the possibility someone vaults past him, injuries come into play or he simply doesn’t perform as expected.
Beyond that, however, the pros of coming out now vastly outweigh the cons. The added experience doesn’t mean that much. He’s still going to be playing college football, and he has already proven what he can do at that level. Where’s the upside?
Plus, it’s entirely conceivable that Herbert is passing on what might have been a chance to play for the New York Giants. There seems to be universal consensus that the Giants were at least interested in Herbert. The potential top of the marquee billing for whoever ends up as the QB who leads the Giants back to prominence is as good as it gets. I’m not saying that as a fan, because anyone who knows me is fully aware I have never cheered for a New York team as a fan, and never will. But from a purely situational standpoint, there’s not a better landing place for any rookie QB.
Draw your own conclusions on the Herbert decision. From where I sit, he blew it.
A big miss on Georgia Tech as my only Wednesday play. I’m still up for the bowl season to date, but that was a mighty bad read. Minnesota was better at every aspect of the game for 60 minutes, period.
I’m on just one game today as well. I won’t be playing any NHL out of the Christmas break as the whole league had 3-4 days off and those breaks tend to skew the projections one the first day back. Experience is a good teacher.
Be sure to check out the Super Bowl special available on the Cokin’s Picks menu to the right of the page. That’s good for all my selections in football, hoops and hockey through the championship game on February 3. The last three months have been really good, and I’m fully confident the good results will continue as we flip the calendar to 2019.
Here’s a free play for this evening in the NHL. Bear in mind this is only an opinion and not a selection as I am reluctant to wager on the first day back to business out of the NHL’s holiday break. But from a pure value standpoint, this one is the best fit on my numbers.
AVALANCHE at GOLDEN KNIGHTS
TAKE: AVALANCHE +125
Both the Avalanche and Knights were probably thrilled to get some time off, as neither team was sharp heading into the break. I made the price on this game pretty close to even, with the Knights only -115 on my work. That indicates pretty decent value on Colorado, so I’ll make them the free play. But again, it’s opinion only stuff as I won’t be active on the ice tonight.