Cokin’s Corner, Tuesday 7/23/19

  • July 23, 2019

A bit more in depth with the daily free play analysis today. My Monday was a split on two F5 plays, winning with Seattle and not coming close with the Marlins. Here’s the comp for today, Good luck if you’re playing along.

CARDINALS (Hudson) at PIRATES (Archer)

Take: PIRATES F5 -125

I like the Pirates some in this spot, but have a clear preference for the F5 option rather than the full game. Pirates manager Clint Hurdle can’t seem to grasp the concept that Chris Archer cannot go third time trough the order. Not that he’s been great first two times through, but acceptable. Third time through Archer has an 8.18 ERA. So I certainly don’t want to have much involvement with that unfortunate stat. I see some signs Dakota Hudson is going to start getting hit. I generally like to wait for a bad game to show before going the fade route. But here’s the trend I’m seeing, and I’m going to try and jump in early. Hudson has a 59% ground ball rate for the season. But he hasn’t reached that number in any of his last four starts, and in two of those efforts the ground ball rate was considerably lower. This guy HAS to get grounders to do well, as his HR/FB rate is sky high. I’m going to try and get five good innings out of Archer and will play the Pirates that way.