Cokin’s Corner, Wednesday 9/28/16

  • September 27, 2016

Days off are few and far between for people in my line of work. But save for the one hour of radio on Tuesday afternoon (The Las Vegas Sportsline, 2-3 PDT, ESPN Las Vegas) I was able to enjoy a day with zero action as I had no plays. So what did I do with all that spare time? Naturally, I watched a batch of baseball games.

In any event, I’m not going to suddenly spring into action with an editorial this evening. I’ll have the weekly Wise Guy Report in the Thursday blog.

Of course, there’s always the task of trying to come up with a good daily free play. This one is on a Saturday football game, but at least for the present time, it’s in the added opinion category and not yet on the personal card. If that changes, I’ll update on Twitter (@davecokin).

213 UTAH STATE at 214 BOISE STATE

Take: BOISE STATE -20

Revenge is a frequently overrated motive, regardless of the sport. Knee jerking to a team just because it’s out to avenge a loss in the prior meeting isn’t an automatic path to the winner’s circle.

But there are certainly some revenge scenarios that warrant more than a passing glance, and I think we have one this Saturday when Boise State plays host to Utah State. The Broncos won’t need any kind of pep talk for this game. All they’ll have to do is think back to what took place last season at Logan. Boise State played one of the worst games in the proud history of its football program.

Utah State didn’t just beat the Broncos, they pulverized them. Boise State kicked an early field goal, and then the floodgates swung wide open. The Aggies capitalized on repeated errors by Boise and the game was over by halftime, with Utah State heading to the break up 45-10. By the time the dust settled after four quarters, the Broncos had turned the ball over an unfathomable eight times and went home with their collective tails between their legs. Final score, Utah State 52-26 and it wasn’t even that close.

I think a payback is in order on Saturday night. Utah State is 2-2 to start the season, but the wins were against Weber State and a pretty lousy Arkansas State entry that is now 0-4 and just lost to Central Arkansas. The Aggies were able to run the football for only 91 yards on 58 carries in losses to USC and Air Force. That’s just not going to get it done against the Broncos.

Boise State is off to a good start at 3-0 and I really like what I’m seeing from this team up front on defense. I don’t see Utah State having any success overland here, which means the onus will be on Aggies QB Kent Myers to have a big game throwing the football if the road team is going to compete here. Myers had a very good 2015 campaign, but the simple truth is he has not been playing anywhere near that level thus far in 2016.

It looks to me like Utah State is in the wrong place at the wrong time this week. I fully expect the hosts to be very fired up for this game, and off what I’ve seen from these two teams, there’s nothing to really suggest this is going to be close. The oddsmakers have done their job by assigning the Broncos a big impost, but I see Boise State as the likely winner here, and by enough of a margin to cover that huge spread.