Dave’s Free Play, Friday 4/26/13

  • April 26, 2013

I’m now officially on one of those rolls. 4-0 again last night, and over the last four days the bottom line is a net +10.0. After a slow start to the month with a batch of one-run late losses, everything has fallen into place. The only downer last night was that I backed off the NBA, which is my weakest game and therefore one in which I am super conservative. But even those opinions are clicking, as I had all three right sides as leans last night.

So it’s not a bad time to be playing all my personal plays. Rates and details are yours simply by firing off an email to me at cokin@cox.net.

The Thursday free play on the White Sox ended up getting included on the personal play list. Ditto for tonight’s comp, as when I’m going well I will be more liberal in terms of taking chances, and I’ve got no problem including this opinion on what looks it will be a five-game slate.


Reason: Colorado is clearly improved, but the Rockies are in a little slump right now and Chase remains pretty much of a horror show for this team. The Rockies are now 8-20 in the last last 28 at this site after last night’s narrow loss, and they’re also an improbable rally against Craig Kimbrel away from a five-game losing streak.

As far as tonight’s matchup is concerned, I can see bettors eagerly firing against Brandon McCarthy, who has struggled for the Diamondbacks. But in spite of the bloated 7.06 ERA, I actually have McCarthy as the better guy tonight. At least McCarthy is making the opposition beat him, as the control has been okay. He’s had awful luck on BABIP, sitting at a grotesque .391. League average is about .290, so there should be a correction coming for McCarthy. Part of his problem has been an effort to increase the usage of his changeup, and that has not worked at all. Last start, McCarthy got back to normal in terms of his pitch selection, and while he wasn’t nails by any means, he was at least a little better.

I’m not buying Juan Nicasio at all. 5.3/5/3 is a really bad BB/K, and he’s actually gotten slightly fortunate on BABIP. In other words, he’s pitching even worse than his 5.31 ERA. The bullpens figure to get involved here, and if that’s the case, Arizona has the advantage. They’re about one run better than the Rockies pen overall, and the split gets even wider when the home/road numbers get factored in. I made the Snakes close to -145 tonight, so laying around a quarter with the Diamondbacks is a decent value.