Dave’s Free Play, Friday 6/21/13

  • June 21, 2013

Thursday worked just right, with a 3-0 sweep on my baseball plays. Two of the winners qualified as relatively easy, but the big difference maker between 2-1 and 3-0 was the bottom of the ninth Jhonny Peralta blast off Andrew Bailey that turned the Tigers from a narrow loss into a thrilling win.

The free opinion for Thursday met a less happy fate, as the Brewers coughed up their lead and lost in extras at Houston. In fact, that was the third straight blown late lead and eventual loss on the daily free plays.

For those who might be new to this site, a quick explanation of the daily free play. It’s always a game I like, but more often than not it won’t make my final cut as far as the personal plays are concerned. I’ll never end up opposite a free opinion posted here, however at the time these plays are posted here, I’m still hours away from determining my final card. That’s not a cop out, it’s just an explantation. And by the way, the daily comp is 292-204 going back about 16 months, so I’m pretty happy with their overall performance.

As for today’s final card, you can purchase one day or one week utilizing the “buy now” tab. For monthly or seasonal offers, contact me directly via email at cokin@cox.net.

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06/21 04:05 PM  MLB   (965) BALTIMORE ORIOLES (966) TORONTO BLUE JAYS

Take: (965) BALTIMORE ORIOLES

The Toronto Blue Jays are the hottest team in the majors right now. They’re going after a ninth consecutive win tonight, which would also get Toronto all the way back to .500 for the season. The bad news for the Blue Jays is that they’ll have to knock off the Orioles to accomplish that feat.

As hot as the Blue Jays are right now, it’s not like Baltimore is arriving on a downer. The Orioles are rolling as well, and they’re only one game off the lead in the AL East.

There’s reason for optimism right now in Toronto. Jose Reyes is starting his injury rehab and adding that bat to what is already a potent lineup means trouble for opposing pitchers. I like the way the Blue Jays bullpen has come together as well. But the starting pitching remains a major concern and that certainly applies to the guy taking the mound tonight

RA Dickey has been a major disappointment. He has made it past the sixth inning only twice all season. Ongoing neck and back issues are very likely key contributors to Dickey’s decreased velocity, which is turn has led to some big innings and some rather bloated stats. Dickey has faced the Orioles twice this season, and stands 0-2, getting hit hard in both outings.

Jason Hammel will throw for the Orioles tonight, and it’s not like he’s blowing away opposing hitters, either. Hammel has, in fact, been way more fortunate than anything else this season. The veteran righty is in shaky form presently, and I’m just hoping to get six okay frames out of Hammel tonight.

The opinion on tonight’s game boils down to value. Toronto is on that 8-0 run, the Orioles are also scorching with eight wins in their last 11 games. I’m just not seeing anything more than a marginal edge for Dickey vs. Hammel, and that’s iffy at best. Yet this line is showing the Blue Jays laying more than -130. That’s inflated thanks to bettors firing with both fists on the Jays earlier this week as they crushed the Rockies. As a result, I see the price being too high tonight in a game that should be priced more in the pick ’em neighborhood. Anytime I can score a team that should be roughly even money at a solid plus price, I’m likely to jump in, and that’s the case tonight. I’ll take the Orioles for the Friday comp.