Dave’s Free Play, Monday 9/23/13
My Sunday wasn’t spectacular, but an overall 3-2, +0.8 was an improvement over Saturday’s results. Meanwhile, the free play rampage remained intact, as the Patriots got the job done. That’s 11-2 the last 13 days on the comps. By the way, the overall free play ledger, which goes all the way back to March 2012, now sits at 339-249, so some seriously healthy profits on those opinions.
Saturday’s colleges were about as chalky as I’ve ever seen from a straight up standpoint. Memphis and Utah were the only two outright underdog winners on the entire regular board. I cannot recall a week where the favorites went 42-2. Obviously, not all of those teams covered the spread, but that’s still an amazing form fitting week of college results. These things have a way of correcting themselves in a hurry, so my sense is we will see a slew of money line dogs getting bettors paid this time around. But for those treading in that territory this past weekend, it was likely lots of torn up tickets.
Baseball gets ignored by the wagering masses once football gets revved up, which in reality is a big favor for the books. I’ve earned a bundle the last couple weeks on the diamond, and I’ll definitely be firing where I can in this final week of the regular season.
Purchasing any of my football packages also gets you my baseball, so joining right now insures plenty of action and hopefully profits as well. The “buy now” feature on this page can be utilized, or simply drop me a line at firstname.lastname@example.org for all the pertinent info on short or long term rates, as well as my exclusive net winners program.
Football free plays are now 7-2 since the regular season got rolling in college and the NFL. Actually, 7-1 since losing with Fresno State against Rutgers, and an officiating error was the likely culprit in the only NFL loser to date. But don’t ignore the baseball comps, which are also doing well. Here’s one for this evening.
09/23 07:10 PM MLB (971) KANSAS CITY ROYALS (972) SEATTLE MARINERS
Take: (971) KANSAS CITY ROYALS
The Royals are going to head into the off season with heads held high. This perennially losing team has broken that unfortunate chain this season, as they clinched a winning record with Sunday’s win over the Rangers.
That’s likely as far as it will go for Kansas City, but they aren’t dead yet in the chase for a wild card playoff berth. The Royals are going to need lots of help to catch either the Rays or Indians, but their first order of business is to win every game. From that standpoint, the final week sets up well with the Mariners and White Sox providing the opposition.
I have no problem taking a stance with KC as far as tonight’s pitching is concerned. It’s the second start for Yordano Ventura, who lit up the radar gun with his triple digit heat in his initial big league start. Ventura’s task here will be to get through five innings and then turn things over to the powerhouse Royals pen. Ventura averaged 98 with his four-seam heat in the debut, touched 102 and mixed in a cutter, plus his curve and change were utilized as well. I was impressed with his poise as well, as making that first start in a big home game figured to be a little tense. Obviously, he’ll be unfamiliar to the Mariners hitters, so advantage Ventura here.
Brandon Maurer throws for the Mariners, and it should be pointed out that Maurer is off a good start against the Tigers. But his strong showings have been few and far between and his one brief outing against the Royals didn’t go especially well.
The bottom line here is that the Royals still have a pulse and I’m not going to try and beat this team until they’re eliminated. The walk-off grand slam to beat Texas yesterday means the momentum is still there as they head to Seattle. Forget about value, there isn’t any as we’ll not be getting any bargains with contender vs. non-contender in the season’s final week. But value is of little consequence in this final week, it’s all about situational spots. That means laying the price with the Royals is the only way I’ll play here.