Dave’s Free Play, Saturday 12/20/14

  • December 20, 2014

Due to the enormous Saturday college basketball slates, as well as good sized agendas in the NBA and NHL, I’ll be passing on doing any commentary for this one day each week. Time better spent trying to dissect the card in search of some right sides. But there will, of course, always be the daily free play.

My Friday was a split, with one of the worst beats in recent memory on Colorado State. Not easy to not cover -2.5 when leading by nine with half a minute to play. I’ll skip the gory details.

The bowl package gets started today. Sorry it’s not on the “buy now” menu, but if you want in, it’s $250 and includes all bowl selections, plus opinions on games that didn’t make the cut as actual plays. Just remit via PayPal to cokin@cox.net

The monthly special carries a guarantee. Minimum +10 net units for the full 30 days of service, or the subscription continues until that overall net profit has been achieved. That’s available on the “buy now” menu or you can contact me directly via email at cokin@cox.net.

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UTEP managed to sneak home inside the number as the Friday free play. The Saturday comp is again in college basketball, this time on a fairly small road favorite.

12/20 01:00 PM   CBB   (551) DAVIDSON at (552) COLLEGE OF CHARLESTON

Take: (551) DAVIDSON -4

I’m a note taker. I maintain a ledger each season that contains what I consider to be unusual results. The rationale here is simple enough. It’s very easy to forget what took place in any single game. Keeping this information handy can pay off down the road, and a good example of this approach takes place today.

Let’s turn the clock back to January 1st of this year, and look at what took place as College of Charleston celebrated the holiday with a crazy upset at Davidson.

Davidson was a potent offensive team last season, but they’d been struggling heading into the game with the Cougars. This ended up becoming the bottoming out game for the Wildcats. They bricked just about everything in a disastrous second half. For the game, Davidson shot way under their season average, and they even failed miserably at the foul line, knocking down only 9/20.

C of C, meanwhile, went off. The Cougars shot an insane 73% for the game on their twos, and when the dust settled, they had themselves a 76-64 upset win.

Davidson apparently got the wake up call in that loss. They went from a dismal 4-10 start to 20-11 before getting upset in overtime in the SoCon tournament.

It’s a different story this time around. The Wildcats are a hot team right now, standing 8-1 with only a loss vs. North Carolina marring their otherwise perfect slate. Davidson has been spectacular offensively, knocking down whatever they shoot with regularity and also displaying outstanding ball security.

College of Charleston comes in with a mundane 5-5 ledger, and the Cougars are off a very tough loss, as they blew a big second half lead and lost in OT to Charlotte. First-year head coach Earl Grant could have a tough time getting his guys back on track mentally following that defeat.

I like this spot for Davidson from a scheduling standpoint. They’ve had a full week of rest and prep after dismantling Niagara, and the Wildcats are off for ten days following this game. Thus, there is no potential distraction I can see. Davidson is what ought to be a focused favorite with meaningful revenge.

My assumption is that Davidson will be a fairly popular betting option today. But even if the Wildcats are a bit on the square side here, I also think they should be the right side. I’ll be on Davidson minus the points today.