Dave’s Free Play, Saturday 2/28/15

  • February 28, 2015

The usual skip the editorial late night entry for Saturday’s action. This will likely be my final really deep card of the season. A significant number of my college plays are from the non-marquee leagues and with those conferences about to head to their respective tournaments, my quantity will decline.

Early signup rates for MLB ’15 are now available. Note that the baseball purchases also include the remainder of the buckets, so I think it’s a pretty good time to jump in. Get all the info on how my program works by emailing me at cokin@cox.net. As always, I’ll note that I don’t swap info with anyone, and in fact, I don’t even maintain a mailing list myself, so there’s zero chance you’ll start getting bombed with junk mail you don’t want.

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The Bucks played really well in the second and third quarters at Staples. Unfortunately for me, they sure didn’t in the first and fourth and the Friday free play went down. Jeremy Lin +18, huh?  Okay. Here’s my take on a really big MWC Saturday hookup.

(671) BOISE STATE  at  (672)SAN DIEGO STATE

Take: (671 BOISE STATE +7

This ought to be fun. Boise State is on the bubble and will probably still be there if they lose tonight. A win would be absolutely huge for the Broncos.

San Diego State is pretty much locked in as far as an invite to yet another Big Dance. But the Aztecs want to capture that Mountain West title. A win here basically clinched the crown. A loss, however, would very likely result in no better than a tie and SDSU would probably end up as the #2 seed via the tie breaker.

So the setup for what is a really big game for these two teams is perfect. I think it’s got a great chance to be a dynamite game that’s played with tremendous intensity.

San Diego State has a great home crowd and they will be at fever pitch tonight with the Aztecs in revenge mode from the loss at Boise State earlier. This Aztecs entry has a legit chance to peak at the right time. Malik Pope is getting more minutes and it’s easy to see why NBA scouts are very high on his potential. Dwayne Polee finally got back on the court last game, and while he looked rusty, once that wears off he could be a big asset come tournament time.

Make no mistake, trying to get the best of San Diego State at Viejas is no picnic. But if there’s a team equipped to turn the trick, I think it’s the Broncos. First off, Boise State is playing tremendous basketball. I thought they might be cooked when they lose Anthony Drmic for the season, but that clearly has not been the case. The Broncos are on an 11-1 run, with only a tough loss at Fresno State mixed in.

It’s worth noting that Boise State has not shown any intimidation whatsoever in front of the powerhouse Aztecs audience. They’ve lost all three meetings here since joining the MWC. But the margins have been minuscule, with the three defeats coming by a combined six points.

The number on this game appears to be right where it should be as far as generating two-way action is concerned. Some bettors are going to focus on the revenge factor and will take their chances laying the points. But I can see plenty of support for the underdog as well. Let’s face it, the Broncos have been making money for their backers and if you’ve been cashing Boise State tickets, it’ll be easy to stay with them getting this many points.

My take is that this is a game that has every chance to go right to the wire. There’s no doubt the Aztecs will make life difficult for the Broncos with that swarming defense. But the visitors have the more reliable offense, and as I’ve mentioned a few times recently, I’ve been giving more weight to productive offenses lately, and with positive results.

Boise State has only two losses by more than six points. One was at Wisconsin, the other was at Wyoming, and the latter was at the tail end of the one bad stretch the Broncos suffered through this season. Winning outright will be a chore to be sure, but I’m willing to grab what I think is a very fair number with Boise State to at least cover the spread.