Dave’s Free Play, Sunday 10/20/13

  • October 20, 2013

First, the bad news. I went 1-3 on the ice Saturday evening. Blew two third period leads, lost a shootout, and was only able to cash a ticket on Nashville. Fortunately, that was a big dog pay, so it wasn’t the worst 1-3 of all time.

As for football, it could have only been better if Texas Tech hadn’t decided to throw for a late TD rather than conservatively run the clock and kick a field goal. Actually, as an observer, I love what Kingsbury did. Give me the coach that tries to win rather than hoping not to lose every time. But from a personal standpoint, I wish he’d have gone the safer route.

Everything else won, and in almost every case, won big. I was 8-1 overall on my football plays. Huge day for all my clients, as they get everything I’m on myself. The winners were Temple, Auburn, Oregon State, South Alabama, Utah State, Baylor, Wisconsin and Vanderbilt. Those eight covered the spread by a combined 144.5 points, so yeah, I’m pretty pleased with the results.

My weekly and monthly packages are available on this page using the “buy now” feature. Here’s a bonus. Buy the monthly package and I’ll run it all way through November. That basically gets you an extra week plus of plays. You can also email me for more complete info at cokin@cox.net.

————-

I didn’t play the baseball game, but as a typical New Englander, I live and die with the Red Sox. So it’s a rematch of the 2004 World Series, which the Red Sox won in a sweep. This one looks a lot tighter. I’ll very likely pass on making a Series wager, as I generally prefer to play by the game, but there will be some analysis here within the next day or two. But I can tell you that as a fan, I hope Boston slaughters those Redbirds!

——————

The Saturday college free play was a snap as Utah State buried New Mexico. College comps are now 9-0 for the season, and I’m on a sweet 16-1 run on the last 17 free football plays. My guess is that the majority of readers will not like today’s NFL opinion. That’s not necessarily a bad thing.

10/20 01:25 PM  NFL   (401) HOUSTON TEXANS (402) KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Take: (401) HOUSTON TEXANS

I love breaking down football games, matching up the strengths vs. weaknesses, examining the schedules, and of course, formulating my own number. And for the most part, it’s those factors that produce my plays. But there is an exception to that rule, and it shows up today in the NFL.

The Houston Texans have been so awful, calling them that is an insult to awful. It hasn’t been bad luck either. According to the DVOA charts at footballoutsiders.com, Houston is the 29th overall team in the league. They’re mid-pack on defense, and manure on offense and special teams.

The Chiefs are 6-0, and DVOA has them #3 overall. Average offense, but an outstanding defense and high end special teams. In other words, a legit contender right now, not at all a fluke they’re unbeaten.

The Texans are reeling with what might be a lame duck coach and they’re pitching a first-time starting QB in Case Keenum. They’ve been outscored by an insane margin since holding that big lead against the Seahawks a few weeks ago.

The Chiefs are not only perfect straight up, they’re also 5-1 against the number. They love to blitz and one has to think that’s a likely problem for a guy with no real NFL game experience on the other side of the ball.

So we have all these dominating variables that scream easy win for the Chiefs. Yet the line for this game is less than a TD. In fact, it opened as low as -4 last Sunday. How is that possible?

The oddsmakers are not always right. It might well be that the Chiefs clobber the Texans today and the books get blown out in the process. But these outfits are not stupid, and this game is a classic case of the line being set where there’s zero chance of split action. 75% of the tickets written on this game will be on the Chiefs, maybe even more than that. They’re going to be a monster teaser play as well.

I don’t always side with the “sharps” and therefore fade the “squares”. My Saturday college card would serve as proof that who’s on what side doesn’t matter much to me. I trust my own data and instincts. But when it’s as clear cut as this, especially based on where the number was set and still resides, I’m going to be siding with the house. In this case, that means taking the points with the Texans.