Dave’s Free Play, Sunday 10/26/14
I’m skipping the usual rundown of selected Saturday college games. A variety of reasons in play here, but the main one is that I’m pretty much on fumes at this point. This is my busiest time of the entire calendar year. Full college and NFL boards, NHL, the World Series, NBA just a few days away and college baskets right around the bend. That translates into lots of hours doing research that has to be done. And Saturdays are simply insane right now. So it’s a quick blog tonight, and I’ll do some catching up tomorrow.
Not exactly my luckiest day of the year on Saturday, although the overall bottom line was actually pretty good. 5-3, +1.8 overall. But not winning Kentucky on a crazy fluke (onside kick returned for a TD) was a bitter pill. I also managed to lose another OT game in hockey as the Panthers went down at Arizona. I’m off to what I believe is my best start ever in the NHL, yet am somehow still 1-3 in games that go past regulation. I’m 17-2 in games that get decided in 60 minutes.
The weekly/monthly packages or the net winners program are going to be expanded even more shortly with the NBA about to begin. That’s not a high volume sport for me, but when a good spot shows, I’ll be there. Add in all the football and plenty of pucks and it’s definitely action time. Use the “buy now” feature on this page to subscribe, and bear in mind there’s a guarantee that comes with the monthly offer. Get all the info or ask about my net winners program via email at email@example.com.
I’ve already posted one free play for the NFL, and here’s one more from the Sunday card. This play is not on my card yet, but might end up being added in the morning. I’l tweet that info (@davecokin).
10/26 10:00 AM NFL (265) HOUSTON TEXANS at (266) TENNESSEE TITANS
Take: (265) HOUSTON TEXANS -3.5
If NFL games were shortened to perhaps 55 minutes, the Tennessee Titans would not be in such dire straits. Unfortunately for the Titans, the games last 60 minutes and this outfit is as awful as it gets at the end of games.
Tennessee lost at the finish line last week at Washington. They managed to hold on against Jacksonville the prior week, but just barely as the Jaguars got a late TD and then recovered an onside kick before missing a potential game winning FG. The week before that the Titans led Cleveland 28-3 and lost the game.
I don’t have much interest in backing a team in any closely lined game when they display a consistent negative tendency such as this one, so that pretty much eliminated any consideration of backing the Titans here.
Now Tennessee is going with a first time starter at QB as Zach Mettenberger steps under center. The former LSU star appears to have some upside despite being just a sixth round draft pick. But he’s also got next to nothing in the way of experience and he’s facing a tough defense here.
The Texans have to be smarting off a frustrating loss on Monday at Pittsburgh. Houston basically blew this game in a stretch of about two minutes late in the first half.
I’m not high on Mettenberger in this matchup. He’s going to see blitzes galore courtesy of Texans defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel, and let’s just say that Mettenberger is not the most mobile guy around. If the rookie can burn the Texans with some good throws, they’ll have to back off and Mettenberger could have a great first start. But I just can’t envision that being the case and I will be surprised if there aren’t some sacks and a turnover or two in the game.
The Texans have their own problems. Ryan Fitzpatrick is average at best and he’s always vulnerable to the critical turnover. But Fitzpatrick has lots of familiarity with this defense as he wore a Titans jersey last season. I think that’s a small edge for Fitzpatrick, and obviously he’s love to go back into Nashville and engineer a road win.
The betting public is going to love the Texans here. They are definitely the square side in this contest. But the Titans are what sure looks to me to be fade material here with the first time starting QB and the continued late game melts. No bargain on the price tag but I’m siding with the Texans to get the win and cover.