Dave’s Free Play, Sunday 4/27/14

  • April 27, 2014

Every bettor I know can remember in great detail the epic bad beats they’ve suffered through, and no amount of time seems to ever dull the memory. For whatever reason, you’ll rarely hear the typical sports player waxing poetic about the ones he or she flat out stole. I pretty much fit that bill myself. I can rattle off virtually everything that happened at the close of some ridiculous loss I incurred. But when it’s a win that shouldn’t have been, the memory is generally not so crystal clear.

On Saturday, I had what amounts to what I believe is a first for me. I not only won a game I had no chance to win, I didn’t even realize I’d won until at least one, maybe closer to two hours had passed after the game had concluded. I had just assumed my Under Heat/Bobcats ticket was no good. The game was projecting way Over the 187.5 at the end of the third quarter. Miami was also winning in a landslide, so in a game I wasn’t paying much attention to anyway, I just figured it was toast and was watching baseball instead.

Hers’s how convinced I was I had lost. I was not even watching the scroll with other scores that rolls across the bottom of the screen. At some point, I decided to check one of my accounts and noticed that I had more money in that book than I was apparently supposed to have, and couldn’t figure out why. It was then that I went to the results and saw the score. Miami 98, Charlotte 85. I literally stared at this score for at least a few seconds until it registered that this was a winner, and my reaction was precisely…wtf?

Anyway, I soon found out that a grand total of 32 points were scored in the fourth quarter, which is mind numbing in itself. I never saw one single second of this final stanza, so I have no idea how it happened, but I’ll take a guess and say it must have been some seriously ugly basketball.

For those who had the Over in this game, my condolences. You should have won easily. But the rules say I have to count this as a win, and so I happily will. And I’ll never mention it again.

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Managed to salvage another profit on Saturday, so things remain solid and I’ll be looking to add a little more black ink to that bottom line today. Just a few days remaining to jump in for the April baseball special. That’s a full 30 days of my MLB and a guaranteed profit of at least five units to boot. Email me at cokin@cox.net if you’ve got questions or want more info. Or simply sign up now by choosing April Baseball Special from the Buy Now menu. For those who go that route, I get in touch immediately after you sign up with all the info. It’s looking like a really good MLB campaign, so you might just enjoy the ride!

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Free play loser on Saturday evening as Paul Maholm did a nice job for the Dodgers and Juan Nicasio had an off night for the Rockies. I’m heading north of the border for the Sunday comp.

04/27  10:05 AM  MLB  (965) BOSTON RED SOX  (966) TORONTO BLUE JAYS

Take: (965) BOSTON RED SOX -105

Maybe it was the World Series hangover, maybe it was losing the team’s leadoff hitter and a prime offensive catalyst, maybe it was the injuries. Whatever it was, the Red Sox had not been resembling anything remotely close to a championship caliber team through the early going this season. But they’ve looked more like the 2013 Red Sox the last couple of days, with the offense coming to life somewhat and the series with Toronto going Boston’s way thus far. The Red Sox will try and complete the sweep today as Jon Lester opposes R.A. Dickey.

Pick the category and you’re likely to see some kind of advantage for the Bosox here. Lester had a BABIP nightmare vs. the Yankees earlier this week, but his K rate was still right there and he surrendered no long balls. It appears to have just been one of those blips that get every pitcher now and then. I have to give Lester the edge over Dickey. The knuckleballer continues to be prone to big innings and his control remains an issue. Those walks could be a serious problem today as the Red Sox are as patient as it gets and pitchers with shaky control can really struggle against Boston.

The Blue Jays have some dangerous bats, but they’ve been inconsistent with the sticks and the stats against lefties have not been good to date this season. The Red Sox, now that they’ve gotten a couple of key walking wounded back on the field, are starting to produce the way they’re capable of, and they did a great job of capitalizing on Brandon Morrow’s wildness yesterday.

Bullpens are always a key factor in any analysis, and the Red Sox have what should be a commanding edge in that department. A couple of the key guys in the 2013 Toronto pen are not doing nearly as well this time around, and closer Casey Janssen is still stuck on the disabled list. If this game is close heading down the stretch, the Red Sox are definitely the favorite.

The tally sheet here seems clear enough to me. I see the Red Sox emerging from their early season slumber and with stat wins on the team elements as well as the starting pitching, I’m thinking Boston is a bargain of sorts at anything less than 6/5. The price is certainly not that high currently, so I’ll take my chances with the Red Sox today.