Dave’s Free Play, Thursday 5/9/13
The unlikely Reds rally against Craig Kimbrel on Tuesday night appears to have triggered a nice little hot streak for me. Solid profits on the Wednesday card with all but one of my personal plays getting home, and whatever was ailing me over the weekend as far as my plays are concerned seems to have been cured.
A quick note for those who might be new to the site. The daily free opinions posted here are not necessarily personal plays. I’ll never go opposite one of these, but whether or not they make my final card is unknown when I do these write-ups. If I decide to add the comp to the actual daily card, I will so note on my Twitter page. If you’re looking to get my actual wagers each day, rates and complete details are yours simply by emailing me at email@example.com.
05/09 04:05 PM MLB (909) KANSAS CITY ROYALS VS (910) BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Take: (909) KANSAS CITY ROYALS
Freddy Garcia made his return to the majors over the weekend, and it couldn’t have gone much better for the old pro. But a look behind the numbers actually tells a different story. First off, for whatever reason, he’s always put up great stats when pitching in Anaheim. Secondly, he did so here against an Angels team that is simply horrible right now. Finally, the truth is Garcia got lucky. He sure didn’t miss many bats, and virtually everything that got hit was at someone. When you see a BABIP of .105, it means Lady Luck was not only smiling, she was downright giddy. Look for a rapid correction, and expect Garcia to start getting hit hard in a hurry.
As for Jeremy Guthrie, things could not be any better. Ever since donning the Royals uniform, Guthrie has been a different pitcher and he’s simply not a guy you want to be fading right now. I’m not going to try and sell Guthrie as a high level starter, and I’m convinced he’ll eventually regress to what has been his career norm. But for the present, Guthrie is a guy on a major roll, and even with decidedly average peripherals he’s a money in the bank starting pitcher for the time being.
The Royals have dropped the first two in this series to the Orioles, and the one season total O/U bet I’ve got that’s in trouble right now is my Orioles Under. But this is not a bad spot for the visitors and they’ve got the hot hurler throwing tonight, so I’m siding with the Royals to salvage the series finale.