Dave’s Free Play, Tuesday 1/29/13
A quick opinion on the “opening line” as this often comes up in discussing whether or not it’s worth playing a game where the bettor cannot get that number once it has been played into.
Here’s one viewpoint. If the first line is only available at one establishment and the max bet is seriously limited…that is NOT the opening line. Call it the “first” line or maybe a “feeling out” line. But it’s not the real opening line. That’s reserved for the original widely available number that is not limited to a mid-three digit wager.
I’m bringing this topic up now because it applies to today’s free play on the NC State-Virginia game. The “first” number on this contest was Virginia -1.5. Grading against that number is ludicrous, as it’s simply not a line that was available to most players, and it was gone after a very small number of limited bets. The real opener was -2.5 (it’s -3 or 3.5 as I’m typing this). Just a little food for thought when glancing at posted plays at various sites where the ‘capper is claiming Virginia -1.5. Probably not.
I’m finalizing a special offer for my February hoops and hockey. Details tomorrow. I’ll tease it by saying there’s going to be an unusual guarantee involved.
01/29 04:00 PM CB (511) NORTH CAROLINA STATE VS (512) VIRGINIA
Take: (512) VIRGINIA
All things equal, I would absolutely rate NC State as being superior to Virginia. So it would naturally follow that jumping on the Wolfpack as an underdog to the Cavaliers would be an easy decision. But if there’s one thing every regular bettor should know, it’s that there’s no such thing as obvious when it comes to winning wagers on a regular basis. This game is a perfect case in point. NC State is in a fairly tough scheduling spot. They’re off a rivalry game win over North Carolina, and a trip to Miami for a clash with the conference-leading Hurricanes is on deck. Plus, Virginia plays a style that we’ve already seen can frustrate what is a high octane Wolfpack squad that wants to play at a fast pace. Very athletic teams often get overly impatient when facing deliberate squads like the Cavaliers, and that’s especially so on the road. The style and the spot both look to be favoring Virginia tonight, so I’ll opt for the Cavaliers as small chalk.