Dave’s Free Play, Wednesday 10/22/14
Here’s this week’s Wise Guy Wednesday report for college football. Note that these are not my plays, just information gathered from various sources. Some of those are in Nevada, as well as in various locales both stateside and offshore.
107 Miami Florida got pounded on Monday as the ‘Canes moved from dog to chalk. Substantial buy back is not anticipated.
118 Auburn has gotten some early attention from the pros. South Carolina is getting most of its support from the joes thus far.
Most of the tickets are on Mississippi State, but sharp dollars are starting to show on 122 Kentucky.
The number on 129 Central Michigan continues to climb, with the Chippewas getting wise guy cash early and the public following.
Syndicates playing both ways on this one, but more of the sharp early action seems to be on 140 Pittsburgh as they host Georgia Tech.
The public is laying the wood with Wisconsin, but two of my sources agreed that they expect sharp buyback later in the week on 141 Maryland.
The Utah State QB injury situation is being ignored by the masses, but there has been a trickle of pro dough on 147 UNLV.
Big move on 150 Toledo that was apparently service-influenced, but the consensus is this number has peaked and will decline between now and game day.
The play on 165 Alabama has been mostly square, but it doesn’t appear the sharps are eager to be on the other side.
174 Washington State is going to be the apparent sharp side in a pros/joes battleground game against Arizona.
One sided action on 177 Georgia Southern so far, and this is another game where there might not be any sharp buys to bring the number back.
Nothing much happening yet on 193 Texas, but the general belief seems to be that sharps will buy the Longhorns at some point.
200 Hawaii is drawing some pro play as they play host to Nevada.
2-0 here on Tuesday with the Giants as well as an NHL call on the Stars. The current heater still going, 25-6 over the last eight days. Obviously, it’s therefore a very good time to be playing my sides. My subscribers get every play, sent via email with analysis as soon as the decision is reached. There are no more expensive levels for supposedly stronger plays. Purchase either the weekly or monthly package using the “buy now” tab on this page, and note there’s a minimum +5 net unit guarantee with the monthly. For info on longer term or my net winners program, contact me directly via email at firstname.lastname@example.org.
No sweat with the Giants as the Tuesday free play. I have very little to choose from today. The baseball game will be be a personal play, but that’s for subscribers. I don’t see anything that stands out yet in the NHL for this evening. So I decided to go with my best NBA O/U win prop for the upcoming season.
ATLANTA HAWKS UNDER 42 WINS
I don’t play many futures for a variety of reasons. But when I see a situation where there are intangibles that I feel could produce either a positive or negative impact, I’m willing to tie up some dollars long term in hopes of realizing a profit. This mindset will generally produce Under plays, as bad news seems easier for me to spot in terms of speculating on a particular team’s prospects.
I don’t see things going well for the Hawks this season. They’re okay from a personnel standpoint, at least from a strictly Eastern Conference perspective. Atlanta plays in a Southeast Division that can generously be described as wide open. On paper, they’re probably good enough to win half their games, so from that vantage point, the O/U is about where it’s supposed to be.
But there are all kinds of off the court issues already in place with this franchise. I’ve always believed in the domino principle, and when things are a mess at the top, there will be an impact throughout the organization. That’s the crux of my observations on the Hawks.
There’s uncertainty as to who’s going to own this franchise, thanks to Bruce Levenson sending out a racist email that he knew wasn’t going to go undiscovered. Danny Ferry is still the General Manager, but he’s taking a leave of absence follow his own inane comments regarding Luol Deng.
The Ferry situation is ridiculous. I don’t see any possibility he’s going to be retained by whatever individual or group assumes ownership of this outfit. So the “leave of absence” is highly unlikely to be anything other than permanent in the long run.
I realize there might be some who will disagree with me, but I don’t see how this mess at the top doesn’t filter through the entire organization, and that certainly includes the coaching staff and players. Once everything gets cleared up, maybe it creates a huge positive vibe that shows up on the court. But the current in limbo status is very likely to create a negative ripple effect.
The Hawks are not a franchise blessed with a great fan base. That’s not exactly a revelation, as it’s been that way for years with the team never really contending for anything. The ongoing off the court fiascos are doing nothing to endear this team to the locals and I can’t see how this team can enjoy a major home court edge with the way things are. Add in a middle of the pack roster and it’s a thoroughly bleak looking situation.
I don’t see Atlanta winning half its games, all things considered. More likely, they finish somewhere in the mid-30’s as far as total wins are concerned. That’s well under the posted O/U, so Under 42 is the play.