Dave’s Free Play, Wednesday 10/29/14
Here’s the weekly Wednesday Wise Guy Report for this weekend’s college football action. Info is courtesy of various sources in Nevada, as well as stateside underground stores and offshore contacts. These are not necessarily plays I’m on myself, it’s just information that can hopefully provide some insight on line movement that’s taking place.
306 Louisville received steady early action and there was also a line adjustment made here by the books based on expectation when another negative piece of info on Florida State was announced. Definitely sharp money to begin with, but lots of steam chasing subsequently.
313 Boston College was popped early by the pros but that number appears to now have settled in. The Eagles could be a popular public dog on game day.
324 Pittsburgh was apparently a play from a service with a very big money following. That’s opposite the square side, as my info is that “way more” tickets are being taken on Duke.
The pros have been firing and winning on 328 Miami Florida the past few weeks, and they’re betting the ‘Canes again this week.
330 Appalachian State is getting action from both the pros and the joes. One of my contacts told me his players have beaten him every week either on or against the Mountaineers.
It’s not yet a big action game, but the sharps are playing more 332 Army, while the public is more on the Air Force side.
Early wise guy action was on 349 Arkansas, although that game seems to be leveling off now.
356 Middle Tennessee State is proving attractive to pros and amateurs alike. No doubt the ugly BYU effort on national TV last week has much to do with that.
360 Georgia will be the most popular public side on the entire board this Saturday. Most of the books I talk with said they’re not really getting much pro dough either way on this game.
377 Old Dominion has been drawing steady sharp action since their game with Vanderbilt went on the board.
Serious dollars have shown on both sides of a big PAC-12 game, but the most recent flood was on 386 UCLA. But one of my contacts feels strongly that late pro dollars will show on underdog Arizona.
Finally, the sharps are currently siding with 407 San Diego State as the Aztecs travel to Reno for a meeting with Nevada.
3-1 here on Tuesday, with an NBA winner on the Mavericks, and NHL scores with Ottawa and Anaheim. The lone loser was Calgary, as the Flames dropped a shootout to Montreal. I’m not 1-4 in hockey games that have gone past regulation, whole going 19-2 on those decided in 60 minutes.
Here’s the irony of sports betting. Of the four games I played on Tuesday, there is zero doubt that the best performance was turned in by the team that lost. The Flames completely dominated the Canadiens, but I ended up getting beat on that wager. The Mavericks lost but slipped inside the number. Ottawa wasn’t any better than Columbus but ended up on top. Anaheim got the game’s only goal on a shorthanded breakaway against the Blackhawks.
The above explains clearly why one should always look beyond the final score to try and determine how the game was played. The final score tells which team won and which team lost, but that’s about it.
This has been a banner month for me with the bottom line now more than 20 net units to the good, and I’ve looked up my fifth straight winning month in the process. I’m excited about what’s in store in November with college hoops about to get started.
Details on the November special in a couple of days. Meanwhile, the weekly and monthly packages are available via the “buy now” feature on this page. More info or details on my exclusive net winners program available by emailing me at firstname.lastname@example.org.
The two Tuesday free plays split, with Dallas delivering an NBA winner, while the Dallas Stars lost on the ice in OT. Here’s a college football game for Saturday that looks reasonably promising.
11/1 12:00 PM CF (351) WESTERN KENTUCKY at (352) LOUISIANA TECH
Take: (352) LOUISIANA TECH -6.5
Here’s a good example of how final scores frequently don’t tell the real story, and how betters can derive value moving forward. Western Kentucky got the win and cover last Saturday as they ended up with an insane 66-51 victory over visiting Old Dominion.
The game was close than that final tally indicates, and one could easily argue that the Hilltoppers were a little fortunate to just win the game, let alone cover. One fourth quarter play really swing this free for all. The Monarchs were driving for a go ahead score when disaster struck. Juwan Gardner played the hero role for the home team when he picked off a pass and rumbled 96 yards for a TD that pretty much ended the proceedings. If Gardner doesn’t make that play, there’s a really good chance ODU gets the upset.
I make sure and keep notes on games that go like this one for a couple reasons. One is the potential of an immediate profit by garnering some value the next week. The other is for future reference. I’ll have next year’s meeting between these teams circled as a possibly strong revenge spot for Old Dominion.
As for this Saturday, I actually ended up downgrading Western Kentucky on my various power rankings off what I deemed an artificial win. The Hilltoppers have been going backwards for some time now, with their matador defense the primary culprit. There’s no question this team can put points on the scoreboard, but right now they aren’t stopping anyone.
Louisiana Tech has now won three straight, in spite of playing very lackluster first half offense the last two games, against UTSA and Southern Mississippi. But the Bulldogs are doing a solid job on defense, and if they can put forth a similar effort on Saturday, it bodes well for their chances against Western Kentucky.
I’m not real enamored with the home team’s offense. They should be running the ball better than they have recently, and that portion of their game needs to come back to life on Saturday. But that really doesn’t figure to be a problem against the shoddy Hilltoppers stop unit, which is about as bad as it gets presently.
I made this number considerably more than where it opened, and even with the spread going up some over the last couple of days, it’s still in what I would consider to be a beatable range. I expect Louisiana Tech to get home by double digits this weekend, so I’ll recommend laying the points with the Bulldogs.