Dave’s Free Play, Wednesday 12/31/14
It’s the final edition of this blog for 2014, so time to update all the numbers since starting this thing back in March of 2013. The bottom line record on the daily free plays posted here now stands 579-448, which works out to better than 56% the right way on more than 1000 plays. It should be noted that the baseball and the occasional hockey selections are money line offerings, and the average lay price on all those plays have actually been a shade under the standard -110 used for spread wagers. The overall net results based on a flat one unit play on every game is now +87.6 net units.
That’s pretty good. It’s not a net profit that will change anyone’s lifestyle either way, but hopefully those of you who have perused this piece on a regular basis have enjoyed what I post and have perhaps derived some profits.
There will likely be some cosmetic changes to the website during the coming year, but the content will remain largely the same. My style won’t be changing. If you want someone who will fire up the hype express and utilize lots of exclamation points to show how excited I am about a monster play….that isn’t going to happen. I maintain a conservative approach as far as my own betting habits are concerned and I’m therefore not about to tell those who are following my plays to unload an absurd percentage of their bankroll on any one game. Slow and steady has gotten it done for me going back a boatload of years and I’m satisfied that’s a good approach.
Happy New Year to all and best wishes for a healthy and prosperous 2015!
Tuesday was not a good day, as I returned 2.5 units to the bad guys. Wrong side on the two bowls I played with LSU and Louisville, and the hoops broke even. It’s been pretty good lately, so the idea is get right back into proper form today. It might also be nice if I don’t get jobbed out of a touchdown thanks to an incompetent replay official in the LSU game. Make no mistake, that was a TD at the end of the first half. The expert ESPN director was able to synch the football with the LSU player’s body and the ball absolutely crossed the plane before he was down. I don’t believe I’d have won my bet regardless, so it’s not a sour grapes rant…but for cryin’ out loud, how do you come up with inconclusive when the replay was conclusive?
I’m going to continue offering the monthly deal with the 10 unit guarantee. It’s a good package, in that the subscription continues until a net profit of at least 10 units is realized. Virtually all the plays are one unit each, so it’s a legit ten unit profit. Purchase securely via PayPal by utilizing the “buy now” feature on this page or email me at firstname.lastname@example.org if you have any questions.
Not a good result with the Tuesday St. Bonaventure call. They appeared to be pulling away from Delaware in the second half. But the Bonnies went stone cold, the Blue Hens got warm and after 40 minutes Delaware was no longer a winless team. Here’s another college hoop clash that will hopefully produce a more desirable result.
12/31 1:00 PM CBB (743) GEORGIA at (744) KANSAS STATE
Take: (744) KANSAS STATE -4
My first take when viewing the numbers for Wednesday’s college basketball slate was that the line on this Georgia/Kansas State game was a little on the peculiar side. After all, Georgia has rolled to an impressive 7-3 start, while the Wildcats are 7-5 and haven’t exactly been flashing much positive form.
It always interests me when I see a betting line that I consider to be “off”. But rather than take the stance that the books have made a mistake, which I consider to be kind of a dumb conclusion, my sense is that I want to find out what they’re seeing that I’m not.
The way this game is lined, I can see the numbers guys jumping on what they will perceive as value on the underdog. The game power rates close to pick ’em, and Kansas State has not been anything close to a go with team.
Upon further investigation, while I didn’t come up with any math to support this spread, I did garner what I felt to be some decent information on the Kansas State side. The Wildcats just suffered what they believe is an embarrassing loss to Texas Southern. K-State roared out to a big early lead, had another 12-0 run later and still managed to lose on its home court to a team they’re simply not supposed to lose to.
Post-game commentary from the coach and some players indicates they’re a very frustrated entry right now. Lots of talk about needing better effort and energy. I can tell you from watching this team play a couple times this season that they need to put some real movement into their motion offense, as there’s been lots of standing around. Also, as I noted in some Twitter observations a few games back, the Wildcats need to grow a pair. I think they’ve been a very soft team thus far that has gotten outworked on a regular basis. Thus, the lousy record and rotten recent form.
Kansas State should be better than they’ve been. This is not a powerhouse by any means, but the Wildcats should at least be pretty good. I’m going to bank on them coming out with a sense of real purpose here. If they do, they can get themselves a win against a Georgia team that hasn’t been as potent when traveling away from Athens. If they don’t and the Wildcats lose again, I can get the money back playing against them in conference play. So call it a one-shot play for me on the favorite to deliver a big effort that produces a positive result. I’ll lay it here with Kansas State.