Dave’s Free Play, Wednesday 4/24/13

  • April 24, 2013

Personal plays eked out a small profit on Tuesday. I split four on the diamond for net loss of -0.1, but grabbed two out of three in the NBA, so the overall for the day was +0.8. Every little bit counts, and while April is probably not going to equal what was a pretty sensational month of March, things are going pretty well for the most part right now. That’s in spite of a continued early season negative spin on one-run games, including a pair yesterday.

The daily free plays have been pretty brutal lately. The bottom line going all the way back to March 2012 is 267-172, which is more than impressive. Nevertheless, as I hate to lose at anything, I’m displeased with the recent slump and you’ll never hear me saying anything along the lines of “well, what do you want for free?” While these plays are often not on my final card, they’re still games I like to at least some extent.

As for the games I send out to my personal players, rates and details are available by sending an email to cokin@cox.net. Pretty simple and very straightforward, and no gimmicks, so get in touch to find out more.

Let’s try and get back in the win column with tonight’s free play. My guess is that most of you will be in agreement with this choice.
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04/24 07:10 PM MLB (963) MILWAUKEE BREWERS VS (964) SAN DIEGO PADRES

Take: (963) MILWAUKEE BREWERS

It doesn’t matter what game they’re playing, I’ve never been much for playing a side I know in advance the masses are going to love. But when the numbers say that’s the way to play, it’s kind of silly to get stubborn and ignore what’s there just to be contrary. That’s the story here as the Brewers look to finish off the sweep at Petco against the Padres. Milwaukee is the hottest team in the majors right now. The Padres can’t buy a win against any team not named the Dodgers.

The pitching numbers are just plain lopsided. I’m not going overboard on Marco Estrada as he is eventually going to be burned by that extreme fly ball rate. But Estrada is pitching considerably better than the 4.50 ERA might indicate. Great BB/K ratio, which means hitters will have to beat him, as he isn’t beating himself. Against a below average offense like the Padres, that’s a big plus going in. He will also have the advantage of being unfamiliar to most of the San Diego hitters. Only a few Padres have faced him, and the one San Diego guy who has given him the most trouble is Cameron Maybin, who’s on the DL.

Edinson Volquez gets the start for the Padres, and he’s an unmitigated disaster right now. Maybe not to the level of the 8.84 ERA, but really bad without question. It’s the same old story with Volquez. He has horrible control and without lowering the BB rate, his chances of succeeding are severely limited. Add in the fact that the 2013 Volquez is also not getting his normal quota of K’s, and he’s a blow up waiting to happen. Volquez has also had a very bad time with several of the Brewers who figure to face him tonight.

Milwaukee has won nine in a row, so they’re certainly not a team I want to get in front of right now. They’re ripping it on offense, and even the maligned bullpen has settled down lately. The Padres are mired in a five-game skid and have scored only six runs in that stretch. Obvious or not, there’s only one side I can make a case for tonight, and that’s the Brewers.