Dave’s Free Play, Wednesday 9/24/14

  • September 24, 2014

It’s Wise Guy Wednesday, featuring a rundown of where the pro dough is heading thus far for the upcoming week of college action. Comments included are from contacts here in Nevada, as well as offshore and from major stateside shops where this still isn’t quite legal.

Early money has shown on 107 UCLA but the consensus seems to be that this is a false move and there will be substantial push on Arizona State on game day.

The betting public is down on 116 Michigan but the Wolverines are drawing serious dollars. This game opened as low as -7, so the train has left the station if you’re angling to play the favorite.

Square/sharp battle looming in the Big 12 with the pros backing big dog 120 Iowa State. The public is very reluctant to play against monster offenses like Baylor, so this line move is all sharp.

Pros and Joes alike seem to like 124 Virginia this week. Or rather, they simply don’t like poor Kent State. One of my east coast guys told me he has yet to write even one wager on the Golden Flashes.

Good sized move in 130 Pittsburgh, but my info is that it’s not important money. More likely, it’s players who won fading Akron last week and are trying to beat the Zips again this week.

Nothing much happening yet on 135 Northwestern, but a couple of my contacts believe the Wildcats will get syndicate action between now and Saturday.

Lots of action on surging 144 Boston College, but it’s not sharp cash. My contact back in New England said he’s totally lopsided on the Eagles, which is not surprising.

When a MAC dog gets hit early it’s almost invariably sharp, and that’s the case this week with 145 Miami Ohio.

Substantial dollars showed up early on 149 UTEP as a huge underdog against Kansas State. The continued push on the Miners appears to be public followers.

154 Massachusetts was a red hot item yesterday, and Bowling Green has dropped from a -11 open all the way to -4.5.

It’s an ugly game for sure, but the wise guys appear to be siding mostly with 160 Southern Miss as a home dog against Rice.

161 Missouri is already drawing some sharp cash, and the consensus is that the flow on the Tigers will increase as we get closer to game day. My offshore contact feels this will be a major pro play.

The line move toward 177 Tennessee looks sharp but it’s actually not, say my sources. In other words, don’t be shocked to see this price reverse course on Friday or Saturday.

180 Miami Florida got bumped on Tuesday, which came as a bit of a surprise as Duke was drawing the early money. The opinions offered to me are that this number has peaked and will go back toward the opening -5 eventually.

Bettors are not fearing the return of Jameis Winston, as 182 NC State is a very popular play this week. I got split opinions as to what this number does heading into Saturday, but if you’re asking me, I think it goes back up a bit.

Marquee teams as big chalk don’t usually draw the pros, but that’s not the case this week with 186 Ohio State.

194 UL Monroe was apparently a big release from a well respected service, and that side got bombed on Tuesday.

There’s invariably one game each week where one of my back east guys I’ve known forever starts ranting on, and this week it’s 196 Utah. He didn’t like the opener and was convinced he’d get all chalk wagers, and as usual, he’s right. The Utes are real popular this week.

Looks like some sharp dollars are showing on 198 Air Force in the home dog role against Boise State.

And finally, a predictable move on 205 Nevada. The Wolf Pack are an extremely popular play this week. But it could get bought back a bit by numbers crunchers if it gets past -6.

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Splitsville for me on Tuesday with the Rays getting there, and the Indians getting smoked. The latter was not a particularly smart play on my part. The Indians walked off the field looking like a beaten team on Monday and I should have avoided them yesterday. Live and learn, which one should never stop trying to do if the aim is to keep producing winners.

My first three in college are set and have been sent out and I’m already on a pair of baseball plays for Wednesday. One of those will be the free play below.

My six-week special is still available via the “buy now” tab you can find on this page. There’s been a good deal of interest in my “net winners” program, probably because it’s a damn good package where my fee is solely based on performance. I don’t think it’s feasible for anyone playing below nickels. But if you’re in that range or higher, drop me a line at cokin@cox.net for complete details.

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The Rays were held in check for seven frames by Clay Buchholz. But a Yoenis Cespedes misplay on a catchable ball that would have ended the eighth with Tampa Bay still scoreless ended up opening the floodgates, so a nice result with the free play on the Rays. Here’s the comp for Wednesday.

09/24 04:05 PM   MLB   (973) KANSAS CITY ROYALS  at  (974) CLEVELAND INDIANS

Take: (973) KANSAS CITY ROYALS +103

I don’t think there’s any such thing as a before the fact easy winner. I avoid that terminology in promoting games as I think it’s inane. Easy winners after the fact? Yeah, sure. And I also believe there are what amounts to easy decisions, although it should be noted they definitely don’t always work out that way.

Tonight’s Royals/Indians hookup falls into that easy decision category for me. It’s over for the Indians. They really needed to get that Monday evening win following the resumption of the suspended game. But it didn’t happen and what I saw last night was a beaten Cleveland team that knows it’s finished for this season.

On the flip side, the Royals clinch a playoff berth with a win tonight, and they’re still very much in the hunt to win the AL Central and avoid that dreaded play-in game. The Royals were really energized on Tuesday night, and I would be stunned if we don’t see more of the same tonight. Make no mistake, I’m not the only one who noticed this as Indians analyst Rick Manning was talking about how KC had a “spring in its step” last night, and that was while the game was still scoreless.

The pitching matchup tonight is Jason Vargas vs. Trevor Bauer, but I’m not sure that matters much. This one is all about the intangibles, which heavily favor the visitors tonight. I’m a little surprised to see a plus sign next to KC as this is written, but I’m sure not complaining. I’m on the Royals to collect another win tonight.