Dave’s Free Plays, Monday 7/29/15
The Mets were a Sunday winner, as they managed to salvage the finale of their weekend set at St. Louis. The victory, in tandem with a loss by the Nationals, means the Mets are just two games out of first place in the NL East. They’re also just a couple games behind the Cubs in the chase for the second NL wild card spot.
Yet this win was the ultimate illustration of what’s wrong with the Mets. This team cannot hit the baseball. Getting past the Cardinals for an important win was nice. 1/26 with runners in scoring position and an astonishing 25 runners left on base was beyond staggering.
It’s obvious the Mets need to get a couple of respectable sticks and I don’t think there’s any question they’re going to make moves between now and the non-waiver trade deadline that’s just around the bend. But one cannot help but wonder the hell they’re waiting for.
The hesitation is understandable as far as dealing one of their young studs from the rotation is concerned. But I’m not sure they need to do so as they have one exceptionally desirable bullpen piece that could well be enough to land a serious stick.
I know Mets fans might cringe at the thought, but the guy I might consider dangling is closer Jeurys Familia. There would be some gamble involved here as Jenrry Mejia is a health risk and Bobby Parnell no longer has that big heat teams prefer for the pitcher handling the ninth inning. Nevertheless both Mejia and Parnell are capable of getting those last three outs. But neither pitcher is likely to draw much quality in return, if for no other reason than their checkered injury histories.
Familia, on the other hand, might actually move right to the head of the class as far as available closers go. He might not be at the level of Aroldis Chapman or Craig Kimbrel, but he’s not that far away from that duo based on his current form and his salary. That’s the big lure as I see it. Chapman and Kimbrel are both expensive. Familia is dirt cheap at half a million dollars and he’s got a ways to go before he can even sniff big money.
It’s just my two cents but if the Mets are serious about making a real run at the post-season they’re going to need to offer something of substance to get a meaningful return. I think Familia could well be that one really attractive carrot.
Pretty good Sunday here. I lost a F5 play on the Tigers. But the Indians came through and a rare parlay hit as the Phillies walked off the Marlins and Dallas Keuchel and the Astros rolled the Rangers. Nice weekend overall and the baseball bottom line is looking fairly decent right now.
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The Indians continued their astonishing ineptitude with the bases loaded on Sunday. This has been an ongoing issue for them all season. But they finally got a couple across in extras Sunday and earned me a free play winner in the process. Here’s one for Monday night.
GIANTS (Hudson) @ PADRES (Kennedy)
Take: GIANTS -107 (Don Best Consensus line at publication time)
Tim Hudson returns from his latest DL stint tonight as the Giants open a series at Petco against the Padres. Ian Kennedy, who is one of several Padres supposedly available with the trade deadline nearing, will be throwing for the hosts.
Hudson is obviously not the pitcher he used to be. But the veteran righty should at least be fresh here and we’ve seen in the past that he’s usually pretty effective when reappearing after spending some time on the shelf. Hudson will get to face one of the less imposing lineups around and the Padres could be down another bat if Justin Upton’s pesky oblique keeps him in the dugout on Monday night.
Ian Kennedy has had a terrible time keeping the baseball in the ballpark. He’s allowing a disastrous 2.13 HR per nine innings and his HR/FB rate is an unsightly 20.8%. It’s really tough to win with those type of ratios. Kennedy owns a decent K rate, so he can still miss bats with some regularity. But his mistakes are getting absolutely crushed and he’s simply not a go with pitcher right now.
The Giants are also coming in hot as they once again dominated the Diamondbacks on the road. That’s the norm for the world champs, who remarkably have now won each of their last ten series at Chase.
The Padres have a little momentum of their own. They went into the break off a couple of wins at Texas and extended the winning streak to four with Friday and Saturday wins at home against the Rockies.
The number comparison between Hudson and Kennedy really doesn’t offer much either way, as it’s not like Hudson was pitching well before heading to the disabled list. But I’d still rather have the savvy veteran here as Kennedy appears to be really messed up and he’s also been plagued by horrible defensive support. The Giants are on a roll and I like their chances of maintaining that upward mobility with the series opening win tonight.
FanDuel Value Play, Monday 7/20
Nice work by Taylor Jungmann as the Sunday value play and I’ll go the starting pitcher route again tonight.
ANDREW HEANEY, P, $7000
Let’s call it straight, Heaney is going to be on loads of DFS cards tonight. So this is hardly a revelation. But at just 7K and facing a Boston lineup that has scored zero runs since the All-Star break, it’s almost a no-brainer. Heaney is averaging 14.6 FanDuel points in his starts, which is the best per game number on the board tonight. Yet he’s only the seventh highest priced pitcher on the salary rundown.
I’m normally going to look for a cheap buy that won’t be claimed by loads of competitors. But I don’t see how I can avoid Heaney here, so I’ll make him my Monday DFS choice.