Dave’s Free Plays, Saturday 6/27/15

  • June 27, 2015

Quick blog tonight, with just the free play and the value opinion for FanDuel. Back to the regular commentary on Sunday.

The Friday free play was a bummer as Justin Nicolino’s second big league start was not as memorable as his first and the Marlins were overrun by the Dodgers. I’ll tab a road dog for the Saturday comp.

DIAMONDBACKS (Hellickson)  @  PADRES (Cashner)

Take: DIAMONDBACKS +125 (Don best Consensus Line at publication time)

Talk about a bad combo. Andrew Cashner has been beset by bad luck most of the season. Plus, the Padres righty just isn’t pitching well. Consequently, he’s stuck with a grotesque 2-9 record and things don’t seem to getting any better.

Cashner has surrendered 19 unearned runs already this season. Needless to say, he’s been betrayed by some porous defense on a regular occasion. It seems as though every time there’s a mistake made behind him, it balloons into something bad for Cashner. But he’s certainly not helping the cause. Cashner has been very hittable all season, and now he is starting to have some control issues. Over his four starts, covering 21.1 innings, Cashner has walked 14 hitters. There aren’t many pitchers who are going to survive that kind of BB rate. In his last five starts, Cashner has permitted 29 runners to score.

Jeremy Hellickson isn’t in the mix to be an All-Star, but the Arizona righty is producing just what the Diamondbacks were hoping for. Hellickson’s job is to go six innings and keep his team in the game. He has done precisely that for the most part, particularly recently. Hellickson has produced quality starts in six of his last seven outings.

There’s nothing fancy about Hellickson, and his pure talent isn’t close to that of Cashner. But the results for the D-Backs righty are simply superior right now.

As for rest, the data is pretty close as far as offense and bullpen are concerned. The better glove team is the Diamondbacks, as the Padres have one of the least efficient defenses in baseball this season.

All that said, I still favor the Padres here, but not by as much as the odds suggest. If the line holds on this game where it closed late Friday evening, the Diamondbacks look playable at the price.

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FanDuel Value Play, Saturday 6/27

Great job by Taijuan Walker last night as the Mariners righty earned a substantial profit for those using him in their lineups.

JD MARTINEZ, OF $4000

JD Martinez is on a power rampage for the Tigers and he’s facing a very homer prone lefty today as John Danks throws for the White Sox. Martinez is by no means dirt cheap at 4K, but this is one of those keep it simple selections. Martinez was the first player I purchased for my Saturday DFS lineup and I’m looking forward to getting more than my money’s worth.