Dave’s Free Plays, Thursday 7/30/15
What an amazing 48 hours of baseball related activity. Trades that were and then suddenly weren’t. Big names on the move one way with some exciting prospects heading in the other direction. And we’re not done yet, because there are still another 48 hours or so remaining before the curtain rings down on this season’s non-waiver trading session.
I’ll hold off till the weekend before issuing my grades as the deadline isn’t here yet and there’s at least one more big name that’s apparently going to be dealt. That would be Tigers lefty David Price. There are reportedly as many as six teams trying to swing a deal with Detroit, and at least as far as the star southpaw is concerned, it’s a seller’s market, with the Tigers looking as though they’re going to land something of real substance in return.
I don’t think anything will challenge the Mets/Brewers deal that was and then wasn’t for craziness. This was nuts. Despite the somewhat suspect comments issued by Mets personnel after the deal fell apart apparently due to some medical reports on Carlos Gomez, this trade absolutely happened. I know this is true thanks to Wilmer Flores, in what had to be one of the weirdest scenes I’ve witnessed in a while.
News had come down the pipeline that Carlos Gomez was heading to the Mets with Flores and Zack Wheeler getting shipped to the Brewers. Yet there was Flores still playing as the Mets were getting walloped by the Padres. But we know that Flores had been told about the deal, as he was literally in tears on the field. Obviously, it wasn’t yet official, as had that been the case, Flores would not have been allowed to continue playing.
But the mere fact that he had clearly been told what was happening and then was sent back out on the field in a very emotional state was stunning. One could not help but feel sorry for Flores, and the idea that Terry Collins, his manager, didn’t know enough to pull him from the game regardless of the state of the trade was way out of line.
The Mets ended the evening looking rather silly on all counts, and at least for the time being, it appears as though they aren’t going to add any desperately needed offense. That makes them the anti-Royals if you will. The defending AL champs are now all in to try and win it all. The Mets, meanwhile, in spite of a power rotation that could be dominant should they reach the playoffs, are in stand pat mode, barring some new deal that comes about.
But at least they’re not the Marlins.
2-1 here on Wednesday with the Brewers getting blanked, but the White Sox and Padres delivering wins. I’ve managed to get back in the black for the month and the season to date numbers are okay at right around +22 net. That’s not quite where I want to be, but it sure beats some alternatives.
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I backed off using the Marlins as a personal play when I got wind of their deal with the Dodgers and that turned out to be a smart move. Remember to follow me on Twitter @davecokin as I will always update during the day as to whether the free play posted here late each evening is on the card the following day. Tonight’s choice is a rising road favorite in the American League.
YANKEES (Pineda) @ RANGERS (Gallardo)
Take: YANKEES -135 (Don Best consensus line at publication time)
The Yankees explosive offense finally was held in check for one night as the Rangers captured a 5-2 Wednesday night win. I’m looking for the Pinstripes to get right back in rhythm tonight as they finish off their series in Texas.
Yovani Gallardo is supposedly still on the trade block, but if he remains a Ranger for this start, I believe the right move is to try and get the best of him. Gallardo has been very bad lately. He had a strong of four straight starts where he held the opposition scoreless. But Gallardo was getting some good fortune in that run and regardless, he’s gone south in a big way since that streak ended.
Gallardo has had some major command issues in his last few starts. His walk rate hasn’t been great and he’s also missing in the middle of the strike zone. That’s not going to fly against this Yankees lineup and off the recent data, Gallardo looks like a dead play against tonight.
Michael Pineda will throw for the Yankees, and while he has been erratic to some extent lately, Pineda is a slam dunk on the metrics comparison here, particularly when focusing on the last 30 days.
Then there’s those Yankee bats. Yes, they cooled off last night, but that really appears to be an aberration at this point. I don’t see Gallardo being able to effectively contain them, and while the Rangers can do their share of damage with the sticks, I also don’t see them keeping pace with the Bronx Bombers if my assessment of Gallardo is correct.
This won’t be cheap. The Yankees opened at a number I believe was too low. Apparently I wasn’t the only one as the quickly shot up to where it is as I’m writing this piece. I’m not generally inclined to spot substantial wood on the road, but can’t resist at a tag I still believe is too low. I’ll be looking to back the Yankees tonight.
FanDuel Value Play, Thursday 7/30
Good work by Jose Quintana as the Wednesday choice. I’ll go for some offense for tonight’s choice.
JUNG-HO KANG, SS, $3100
David Holmberg is the scheduled starter for the Reds tonight and I can see him being most vulnerable pitcher on the board. So the idea here is to grab a righty hitter who is in good form that might also be able to exploit the small sample, but extreme fly ball tendencies exhibited by Holberg.
That line of thinking got me interested quickly in Jung-ho Kang. This guy is on a roll right now and he’s still available at SS for a well below average price tag of only $3100. I see Kang having great shot to stay hot tonight and I won’t be shocked in the least if he goes deep for a third straight game. Kang gets my vote as tonight’s value play.