Dave’s Free Plays, Tuesday 7/28/15

  • July 28, 2015

The first trading deadline blockbuster deal is in the books. Johnny Cueto making the move from the Reds to the Royals was big, but everyone knew Cueto was going to get rented by somebody for prospects. On Monday evening, however, we got a genuine big name swap that was a bit of a shocker.

I can’t say it’s surprising that Troy Tulowitzki was dealt by the Rockies, as whether it was now or at the end of the season, Tulo figured to be somewhere other than Denver by the time the 2016 campaign rolled around. But the fact he’s heading to the Blue Jays was a real stunner.

This is a sensational deal for the Blue Jays. Not that there’s anything wrong with Jose Reyes, but Tulo is an established superstar. About the only concern I’d have here is his injury history, and one has to wonder about the impact playing so many games on artificial turf might have on Tulowitzki’s body. But if he can stay on the field, it’s a monster pickup for an offense that was already the best in the game.

The Blue Jays still have a significant need for pitching, and I can’t help but think this deal is a precursor to something else involving a quality arm. But even if that doesn’t happen, the most dangerous lineup in the game just got even scarier.

As for the Rockies, I really don’t have any idea about what they’re doing. Neither do they, I suspect. Sure, Tulo wanted out of Colorado and perhaps that lowered his trade value a tad. But Jose Reyes, Miguel Castro and two at this point unnamed minor league pitchers for Tulowitzki? Not enough and not what Colorado needed. The Rockies had to get some pitching for Tulowitzki, and unless they’re flipping Reyes for a quality arm, I just don’t get what the game plan is for this entry moving forward.

In any event, good luck to Adam Morgan and any other lefty that has to try and negotiate his way through this gauntlet of righty power bats now owned by the Blue Jays. Morgan is a rookie southpaw who will be on the hill tonight for the Phillies as they open a set north of the border. His best move might be to get stuck at customs and miss the start. The same advice might be sound for lots of other lefties as well.

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3-0 on Monday with the Rays, Royals and Diamondbacks all succeeding. That finally gets me slightly back in the black for July, although this has not been what I’d call a stellar month by any means. Nevertheless, black ink is always a good thing, and hopefully that bottom line improves a little more this evening.

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Good work by Nate Karns and the Rays as the Monday free play. I’ll tab one of the game’s marquee pitchers tonight for the Tuesday comp.

NATIONALS (Zimmermann) @ MARLINS (Fernandez)

Take: MARLINS -125 (Don Best consensus line at publication time)

There aren’t many spots where the lowly Marlins can even rate serious consideration at chalk. But the one exception to that rule is when the amazing Jose Fernandez is on the mound.

Fernandez has rebounded from his Tommy John surgery in spectacular fashion. I sure hope he stays healthy for years to come, as the sky is truly the limit for this incredibly gifted pitching phenom. Fernandez is putting up some eye popping numbers since coming off the DL. In fact, while that 2.77 ERA is good, it gets even better upon further examination when studying the Fernandez metrics.

There’s nothing wrong with Jordan Zimmermann and it’s never easy to try and beat the talented Nationals righty. But Zimmermann just can’t match up with Fernandez frock a head to head category standpoint.

It’s also important to note that while the Marlins are a bad baseball team, especially with Dee Gordon and Giancarlo Stanton having been sidelined. But they like get Gordon back tonight. And as is often the case with lousy squads, they play with their most focus and frequently get their best results when the ace is on the mound.

The Marlins are 19-3 at home when Fernandez starts, and that includes a huge 13-1 run as home chalk when Jose toes the rubber. So while there’s nothing to knock on Zimmermann and the Nationals are clearly the better team, I can completely justify Miami being the favorite here. Expect the Marlins to play well tonight and if they can plate just a few runs, they’ll have an excellent chance to get themselves a win.

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FanDuel Value Play, Tuesday 7/28

Pretty good job by Robbie Ray as the Monday choice, although he was denied a win when the Arizona pen blew the save in the ninth before winning the game in the tenth. I’m going to try and nail another bargain priced pitcher tonight.

ZACK GODLEY, P, $5800

I can’t say what the future holds for Zack Godley. The Diamondbacks rookie wasn’t highly regarded in the prospect rankings coming into this season and his first big league start was also just his fourth above Class A. But Godley had a somewhat spectacular debut and he could be a lightning in a bottle candidate in his first trip around the bigs.

Godley might just be one of those unexpected breakouts. He posted some really good numbers at Visalia, and while that’s only High-A, it’s also in a notorious hitter’s league. His heat was higher velocity than I expected, and while his secondary pitches were nothing especially out of the ordinary, his command was excellent.

Godly might not be a long term hit, but I think he’s got a chance to be at least be a short term success. He’s facing a less than daunting lineup tonight in a good pitcher’s park and I like his chances of producing some decent DFS points at a very small investment.